The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) admitted last weekend that since the conflict began, about 40% of its missiles and unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) targeted Israel, with the remainder aimed at neighboring Gulf states. This means Iran has launched more than 1,200 missiles and UAVs towards these neighboring countries.

Iranian UAVs and missiles have struck luxury hotels in Dubai, damaged oil facilities and desalination plants in Bahrain, and hit substations and airports in Kuwait. The IRGC has also attacked oil and cargo ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz, nearly paralyzing commercial flows from the Gulf to the global market.

Smoke rises after an Iranian attack on Bahrain. Photo: Reuters

According to experts, both sides in the conflict appear to have their own calculations behind the attacks on the Gulf. Iran hopes that targeting these nations will distance them from the United States and inflict economic losses severe enough to compel an end to hostilities.

Kamal Kharrazi, a key foreign policy advisor to Iran's Supreme Leader, stated that these attacks will continue to force Gulf states to persuade US President Donald Trump to cease the offensive campaign.

Conversely, the United States and Israel seem to be using these Iranian attacks to pressure Arab governments into joining their military efforts.

Last week, Mr. Trump remarked that witnessing US Arab allies being relentlessly attacked by Iran was the "biggest surprise" of the conflict. He added that these assaults had motivated Gulf nations to "resolutely want to participate."

Republican Senator Lindsey Graham, an ally of President Trump, has been the most vocal in pressuring Arab allies to join the fight.

Following a visit to Israel, he questioned why the United States should defend partners like Saudi Arabia when they refuse to contribute to what he described as a "shared struggle against Iran." He warned that if they do not participate, "consequences will follow."

Before the current hostilities, most Gulf states maintained partnerships with Iran and initially opposed the US-Israeli campaign against it. However, after days of continuous Iranian attacks, the anger of Gulf governments and their populations has shifted.

United Arab Emirates (UAE) President Mohamed bin Zayed al Nahyan visited some of those injured by Iranian missiles last weekend, issuing a warning: "The UAE has thick skin and bitter flesh. We are not easy prey."

Saudi Arabia is also working to de-escalate tensions, but its officials are increasingly issuing stern warnings to Iran, even threatening to "step to the front lines to confront" Tehran if the attacks do not cease.

However, Gulf nations have so far refused calls to participate in airstrikes against Iran. Regional leaders have repeatedly affirmed their desire to avoid involvement in the conflict.

Dubai billionaire and business magnate Khalaf Al Habtoor offered insight into the Gulf's mindset in a rare response to US Senator Graham's call for intervention.

"We know why we are being attacked, and we also know who dragged the entire region into this dangerous escalation without consulting those he calls 'allies'," Habtoor wrote on X, though he later deleted the post.

Gulf states are clearly exercising extreme caution to avoid being drawn into a major conflict where they might ultimately bear the long-term consequences alone after the United States withdraws.

According to Hasan Alhasan, a senior Middle East policy expert at the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) in London, many Gulf nations share a perception that in striking Iran, the Trump administration prioritized Israel's security over its Arab allies.

"This loss of trust is likely a barrier preventing Gulf states from participating in attacks on Iran," he said.

Difficult position

Gulf nations are acutely aware of their difficult position.

"Ultimately, Iran remains our neighbor," an UAE official stated. "Relations with Tehran will eventually need to normalize, even if it takes decades to bridge the immense trust deficit."

US forces will eventually "pack up and withdraw" from the Middle East, while Iran will always remain a neighboring country, according to Bader Al Saif, a history professor at Kuwait University.

"The US withdrew from Afghanistan. They are leaving Iraq, and they will also leave our region. Therefore, we need to resolve our own problems," he added.

Some smaller Gulf nations are likely waiting to see Saudi Arabia's reaction, as the regional powerhouse's decisions could influence whether other countries follow suit.

However, a decision to engage in the conflict could force Riyadh to fight on multiple fronts, including along its southern border, where Iran-backed Houthi forces in Yemen had only recently reduced years of attacks on Saudi territory.

Among the Gulf nations targeted by Iran, Saudi Arabia is the only one bordering both the Persian Gulf and the Red Sea, giving it an oil export route that bypasses the Strait of Hormuz. However, this also makes it vulnerable to Houthi attacks, which have previously targeted vessels in the Red Sea.

The Houthis have previously disrupted maritime traffic through the Bab al-Mandab Strait, a chokepoint connecting the Red Sea to global shipping lanes, and could threaten this area again if the conflict escalates.

Alhasan believes Gulf states are now caught in a dilemma, weighing the risks of participation against the cost of remaining neutral. He warned that inaction could weaken deterrence and make Iran less hesitant to launch future attacks.

Alhasan suggested that Gulf allies could support the United States by opening their airspace and military bases for Washington's use, which is "the least escalatory option." They could also target Iran's missile and UAV launch sites, or, more aggressively, strike Iran's oil infrastructure in a tit-for-tat manner.

Ultimately, however, the two sides' objectives do not align. If they intervene, Gulf states would likely aim only to restore deterrence and quickly end the conflict, while the US-Israel focus is on dismantling Iran's military capabilities.

Another concern for Gulf states when considering retaliation against Iran is the risk of their critical infrastructure becoming even more intensely targeted by the adversary.

Last weekend, a desalination plant on Iran's Qeshm island was attacked, leading to Iranian retaliation with a UAV strike that damaged a similar facility in Bahrain.

This incident heightened fears across the Gulf that the conflict could spread to water infrastructure, which is particularly vital for a region heavily dependent on seawater desalination for drinking water.

The desert nations of the Gulf account for less than one percent of the global population but contribute about 50% of global desalination capacity. An Iranian attack on desalination infrastructure could severely disrupt the region's domestic water supply, pushing populations into a catastrophic situation.

The Jerusalem Post reported on 8/3 that an Israeli official stated the UAE carried out the attack on Iran's Qeshm island desalination plant. However, Abu Dhabi quickly denied this, affirming its consistent position throughout the conflict has been purely self-defense and will not change.

Anwar Gargash, an advisor to the UAE President, asserted that Abu Dhabi "will not allow itself to be drawn into the spiral of escalation."

The Jerusalem Post later cited a source close to the UAE accusing Israeli officials of spreading "false rumors" to try to draw the nation into the conflict.

Location of Iran and Gulf states. Graphic: Guardian

While the conflict is shaking global markets and the Gulf economy, governments in the region currently choose to remain outside the fighting. This is a war they cannot control. Moreover, they fear being drawn into a confrontation where they will have to bear the long-term consequences themselves after external powers withdraw.

"However, doing nothing also carries risks," Alhasan said. "How long can the Gulf endure? Inaction does not mean an absence of danger."

Vu Hoang (According to CNN, AFP, Reuters)