Analyzing Planet Labs satellite images, researchers Jeffrey Lewis from the Middlebury Institute of International Studies in California and Decker Eveleth, an expert at the CNA national security analysis organization in Virginia, identified a suspected Oreshnik missile site. This site is reportedly at a former airbase near Krichev, approximately 307 km from the Belarusian capital, Minsk.

Satellite image analysis reveals rapid construction between 4/8 and 12/8, with features consistent with a Russian strategic missile site. US researchers estimate the location has space for only three Oreshnik launchers.

Satellite image of the former Belarusian airbase in Krichev, a possible deployment site for Oreshnik missiles, on 16/11. *Reuters*

An image from November showed a "military-grade rail transfer point" surrounded by a security fence, suggesting missiles, launchers, and other components could be transported by rail. A concrete structure covered with earth appeared at the end of the runway, potentially a disguised missile launch point.

A source familiar with the matter told Reuters that the US intelligence community shares a similar assessment regarding Russia's deployment of Oreshnik hypersonic ballistic missiles in Belarus.

Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko announced on 18/12 that Russia had transferred "no more than 10 complexes" of Oreshnik missiles to Belarus, and the deployment area was ready. Belarus expects to put the Oreshnik into combat readiness this month.

Moscow and Minsk have not yet disclosed the exact deployment location of these powerful weapons. Russian officials state that the Oreshnik reaches speeds over 10 times the speed of sound, equivalent to nearly 11,000 km/h. Beyond its high speed, the Oreshnik missile features multiple independently targetable reentry vehicle (MIRV) technology, allowing each missile to carry up to 36 warheads.

Location of Krichev town in Belarus. *Google Maps*

Belarusian Defense Minister Viktor Khrenin stated earlier this week that the Oreshnik deployment would not alter the balance of power in Europe. He explained that the decision to deploy is Minsk's response to "aggressive actions" from the West.

Minister Khrenin also stressed that Belarus will independently determine the targets for the Oreshnik missile system deployed on its territory. "We will independently determine the targets, and Russia will assist in operating the system," he said.

John Foreman, an expert at Chatham House and former UK defense attache in Moscow and Kyiv, believes Russia intends to deploy the Oreshnik in Belarus to extend its range deeper into Europe. He assessed this move as Moscow's response to Washington's plan to station dark eagle medium-range hypersonic missiles in Germany next year.

Pavel Podvig, an expert in Geneva, expressed skepticism that the Oreshnik deployment would provide significant military or political advantages for Moscow against Europe. However, he noted it conveys a message of security assurance for Belarus. In contrast, expert Lewis suggested that Moscow placing nuclear-capable weapons outside Russian territory sends a clear political message of nuclear deterrence.

Thanh Danh (According to Reuters, Belta)