The US Senate Armed Services Committee last week requested the Pentagon to assess its ability to increase Patriot missile transfers to Ukraine, citing concerns over the country's defensive capabilities against drone and missile attacks from Russia.

The exact number of Patriot missiles remaining in Ukraine's inventory is classified and difficult to determine. However, Kyiv has repeatedly acknowledged the scarcity of ammunition for Patriot and other Western air defense systems, urging allies to maintain and increase aid.

In an interview published in April, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky stated that the situation "could not get any worse." A month later, he sent an urgent letter to his counterpart, Donald Trump, and the US Congress, requesting Washington to provide additional Patriot missiles to Kyiv.

Colonel Yuri Ignat, press secretary for the Ukrainian Air Force Command, reported that Ukraine has received over 1.600 missiles, including both advanced PAC-3 and older PAC-2 models, since the first Patriot system became operational in mid-2023.

The New York Times reported on 13/6 that Ukraine's air defense at one point had "only 16 Patriot missiles left across the country."

According to US air defense doctrine, defensive forces typically fire two to four Patriot missiles to intercept one enemy missile. This means Ukraine would have been able to counter a maximum of eight Russian missiles at that time, while Russia is capable of launching dozens of missiles in a single attack.

The Ukrainian military possesses numerous Soviet-era air defense systems, along with modern systems supplied by Western allies. However, Ukrainian officials often emphasize that Patriot is the only weapon capable of countering Russia's Iskander-M ballistic missiles.

The New York Times described the Patriot ammunition shortage as "one of Ukraine's fatal weaknesses," adding that Russian military planners are fully exploiting this issue by intensifying ballistic missile attacks in recent weeks.

Experts suggest that regardless of how many Patriot missiles Ukraine currently possesses, the number is insufficient to counter the large volume of ballistic missiles Russia employs.

"When comparing the number of ballistic missiles Russia produces each month to the interceptor missiles the US manufactures annually, the numbers are simply too disparate," said Oleh Katkov, editor-in-chief of the Ukrainian military specialized publication Defense Express.

A Patriot system launcher at an undisclosed location in Ukraine in August 2024. Photo: Reuters

During a NATO-Ukraine Council meeting in early June, President Zelensky cited Ukrainian intelligence estimates indicating that Russia could produce approximately 120 ballistic missiles per month, totaling over 1.400 per year.

According to data compiled by the New York Times from daily reports by the Ukrainian Air Force, Russia used 74 ballistic missiles in 2023 but launched nearly 600 in 2025. From the beginning of 2026 until mid-June, Russian forces fired 410 ballistic missiles.

Lockheed Martin, the manufacturer of the Patriot system, announced it delivered a total of 620 air defense missiles to customers worldwide in 2025, a figure comparable to the number of ballistic missiles Russia launched into Ukraine during the same period.

Air defense missiles must also be deployed at the right time and in the right place to be effective. Ukraine has a large territory with many targets to protect, while the number of Patriot missiles and launchers is limited. The systems must be spread across various regions, dispersing combat-ready ammunition and not always ensuring adequate quantities.

Valerii Romanenko, an aviation expert and former defense officer at the National Aviation University of Ukraine, stated that Ukrainian units often lack sufficient missiles when facing large-scale, continuous attacks from the enemy.

"Sometimes the launchers are completely empty. We detect Russian missiles approaching, but we can only powerlessly watch because there is nothing left to intercept them," he said.

Colonel Ignat also acknowledged this situation in February. "Some systems were even completely empty, with no missiles left, even as attacks still needed to be repelled," he said at the time.

"A goalkeeper stands before the goal, suddenly 10 balls fly towards him at once, and he naturally cannot catch them all. The goalkeeper can only block as many balls as he has hands and feet, right?" the Ukrainian official added.

A US Patriot missile firing during an exercise in Palau in August 2025. Photo: US Army

Ukrainian military commanders also have to guard against the possibility of Russia attacking launchers, radars, operating crews, and missile depots. "Ukraine cannot concentrate all missiles in one location or close together, because Russia would quickly detect and attack them," Romanenko noted.

Ukraine is actively seeking Patriot supplies to address the current shortage. Ukrainian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Heorhii Tykhyi stated on 10/6 that the country has identified sources of PAC-2/3 missiles nearing expiration and is negotiating to access them.

Kyiv is also working to develop its domestic Freya air defense system, capable of countering ballistic missiles. The company Fire Point announced successful testing of the FP-7.X ammunition for this system, adding that the missiles could enter mass production from August, depending on support from European partners.

However, it remains unclear whether these can achieve effectiveness comparable to the most modern PAC-3 MSE missiles provided by the US to Ukraine.

Pham Giang (According to War Zone, New York Times, Kyiv Independent)