The Crimea peninsula, annexed by Russia in 2014, has become a region of strategic importance for President Vladimir Putin. It symbolizes his vision of restoring Russia's superpower status and serves as a vital logistics center for military operations across southeastern Ukraine.

When the conflict began, Russian units from the Crimea peninsula advanced deep into southern Ukraine, at one point controlling Kherson, the provincial capital. The Kerch Bridge, connecting Crimea to mainland Russia, became a crucial supply route for Russian forces in Crimea, alongside the land corridor through Donbass.

However, as the war in Ukraine enters its fifth year, this strategy is being undermined by inexpensive unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) that Ukraine is increasingly developing and deploying, according to Natalia Abbakumova, an analyst for The Washington Post.

In recent weeks, Ukraine has launched continuous medium and long-range UAV attacks targeting critical infrastructure and routes Russia uses to transport troops and weapons to the front lines. UAVs have also struck railway bridges, checkpoints, pontoon bridges, and oil refineries, leading to fuel shortages and widespread power outages across the peninsula.

Black smoke rises from oil storage tanks after a Ukrainian attack on Kerch, Crimea on 21/6. Reuters

In Sevastopol, Crimea's largest city with about half a million people, fuel tanks were depleted on 22-23/6, according to Mayor Mikhail Razvozhaev. Streetlights were turned off, residents were advised to conserve electricity by turning off air conditioning despite the heat, and train services were reduced for at least several days. Water shortages have also been reported across the peninsula.

Russian forces have increased air defense operations, deploying smoke-generating equipment on the Kerch Bridge to obscure UAVs and deploying mobile air defense systems, but they have not been able to stop Ukraine's attacks.

Ukrainian UAVs also struck three of five vehicle ferries at the Kerch transfer point connecting Crimea and Russia's Taman peninsula. This halted services and left about 700 vehicles stranded on the Kerch side from the night of 20/6 into 21/6.

The well-known Artek children's camp in southern Crimea was forced to cancel its summer programs and evacuate children.

"We didn't see the UAVs, but we saw burnt-out fuel trucks after the attacks. At gas stations, local residents had to queue for over 8 hours to receive fuel vouchers," recounted a Russian woman who drove to Crimea with her husband and son in early june.

Without maintaining stable and reliable supply lines to Crimea, Russian forces could face difficulties in the most intensely contested areas of eastern Ukraine in recent months, where Kiev has launched multiple counter-offensives.

"In the near future, Crimea will become an isolated island. This could lead to unpredictable consequences for the Russians," stated Ukrainian Defense Minister Mykhailo Fedorov in a recent YouTube interview.

In late may, the Ukrainian military announced a "logistical blockade" on Crimea, stating its intention to "systematically destroy" Russia's logistics network, storage facilities, equipment, command posts, and transport routes on the peninsula.

Russia constructed the Kerch Bridge, costing about 4 billion USD, to establish a stable connection with Crimea. President Putin personally drove a truck across the about 16 km long bridge during its inauguration in 2018.

One of Russia's objectives when it launched its operation in Ukraine in 2/2022 was to establish a land corridor connecting Russian territory with Crimea through eastern Ukraine. The R-280 highway became this corridor, running through the cities of Melitopol and Mariupol.

Location of the Kerch Bridge and the R-280 highway connecting Russia to the Crimea peninsula. IWS

However, advancements in medium-range UAV technology, including Ukrainian-developed models operating via the Starlink network and the US-made AI-integrated Hornet series, have given Ukraine an advantage.

Ukrainian UAVs can now conduct attacks along the land corridor to Crimea, including targeting fuel tankers traveling on the R-280 highway.

Since late may, Ukraine has also attacked oil depots and refineries in Crimea, along with three transfer points connecting Russian-controlled territory to the peninsula: Armyansk, Henichesk, and Chonhar. The latter was attacked at least three times in june, according to the Ukrainian military.

A UAV attack struck a railway bridge on the Kerch-Dzhankoi line, a route Russian forces use to transport equipment and fuel from Crimea to the southern Ukrainian front. The attack caused a fire, threatening to paralyze freight and passenger transport.

Tens of thousands of Ukrainian UAVs now threaten areas about 320 km behind the front lines in Russian-controlled Ukraine.

"There is virtually no safe route left for the forces controlling the south and east of our country," President Volodymyr Zelensky stated earlier this month.

The bridge across the Kerch Strait seen from a distance in 7/2023. AP

During a government meeting this week, President Putin addressed the UAV attacks on Crimea and the peninsula's fuel shortages. He affirmed that Ukraine's campaign "does not and cannot change the reality on the front, where Russian forces are liberating one populated area after another." He also gave no indication of an end to the fighting.

However, many Russians remain concerned about traveling to Crimea this summer. Pro-Kremlin military bloggers have urged Crimean authorities to advise Russian citizens against venturing to the peninsula at this time.

"Traveling to Crimea now is dangerous! We can clearly see this from attacks on trains, buses, and cars that have resulted in casualties," said Alexander Sergeyev, a pro-government Russian blogger who has lived in Crimea since 2014.

Thanh Tam (According to The Washington Post, Meduza)