On 1/7, Thailand's Constitutional Court suspended Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra, upholding a request from 36 senators to investigate a controversial phone call she had with Cambodian Senate President Hun Sen last month.

Stithorn Thananithichot, director of the Office of Democratic Innovation at the King Prajadhipok's Institute, believes the court's decision to suspend Paetongtarn will alleviate some public pressure after approximately 10,000 people protested in Bangkok on Tuesday, demanding her resignation.

However, this could also usher in a new period of political instability for Thailand at a difficult time. The country faces border tensions with Cambodia and tariff pressure from US President Donald Trump's administration.

In this context, Paetongtarn has temporarily transferred power to Deputy Prime Minister Suriya Juangroongruangkit, who will serve as acting leader until the Constitutional Court issues its final ruling, a process that could take one to two months, Stithorn said.

Paetongtarn Shinawatra at a press conference in Bangkok, Thailand, in August 2024. Photo: Xinhua

Paetongtarn Shinawatra at a press conference in Bangkok, Thailand, in August 2024. Photo: Xinhua

In a worst-case scenario, Paetongtarn's Pheu Thai Party might be forced to persuade Bhumjaithai, the second-largest party in the coalition, to return and agree to have its leader, Anutin Charnvirakul, become prime minister, according to Stithorn.

If this happens, the suspension will place the Shinawatra family in a precarious position after just a year back in the political arena.

Paetongtarn is the third prime minister from the Shinawatra family, following her father, Thaksin, and aunt, Yingluck. Both, however, saw their political careers end abruptly. Thaksin was ousted in a 2006 coup, and Yingluck was removed by a court ruling in 2014.

Thaksin remained popular after his removal, with many voters viewing his government as attentive to their needs. During the 2022 election campaign, Paetongtarn acknowledged her family ties as an advantage but insisted she wasn't her father's proxy. "I am not my father's shadow. I am his daughter, and I always will be, but I make my own decisions," she said.

Paetongtarn, 38, who has limited political and executive experience, was elected prime minister by the Thai House of Representatives on 16/8/2024, succeeding Srettha Thavisin and becoming the country's youngest leader.

Taking office as Thailand's economy struggled to recover from the Covid-19 pandemic and support for the Pheu Thai Party waned, Paetongtarn expressed her desire to create opportunities, improve people's lives, and foster national development.

Critics, however, argue that her government has achieved little. While her administration enacted the equal marriage law, it was initiated by the previous government.

They also point to dissatisfaction with Pheu Thai's policies: uneven minimum wage increases, fluctuating cash assistance programs, and the stalled and controversial legalization of casinos. The lack of progress in tariff negotiations with the US is another source of discontent.

Observers suggest Paetongtarn's youth was a significant advantage during the election, attracting young voters, but became a liability after she assumed office. Her lack of experience proved to be a weakness in the face of Thailand's complex political challenges.

Analysts believe this was evident in her phone call with Hun Sen amid border tensions between Thailand and Cambodia. She addressed Hun Sen as "uncle" and described the commander of Thailand's Second Army Area as "belonging to the opposition."

When a recording of the call was leaked, it triggered a major crisis. Paetongtarn apologized but denied harming the country. She also ignored calls for her resignation or the dissolution of parliament, which critics saw as Pheu Thai's attempt to cling to power.

Napon Jatusripitak, a political scientist at the ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute in Singapore, said Paetongtarn's response revealed her political inexperience and could significantly impact the Shinawatra family.

Thaksin Shinawatra greets supporters upon arrival at Don Mueang Airport, Thailand, on 22/8/2023. Photo: Reuters

Thaksin Shinawatra greets supporters upon arrival at Don Mueang Airport, Thailand, on 22/8/2023. Photo: Reuters

"Currently, the Shinawatra family's reputation is weakened. Their most likely heir is now embroiled in scandal. The Shinawatra name may no longer be a guaranteed ticket to electoral success," Napon said.

Furthermore, the family is facing legal troubles. On 1/7, Thaksin appeared in court on charges of violating the lese-majeste law, designed to protect the Thai monarch from criticism.

The charges stem from a 2015 interview with South Korean media in which Thaksin claimed members of the Privy Council, a body of advisors to the Thai King, supported the coup that ousted Yingluck in May 2014.

Yingluck remains in exile, facing potential imprisonment if she returns to Thailand.

Prime Minister Paetongtarn is facing protests led by veteran activists from the Yellow Shirt movement, the same group that ousted Thaksin in the 2000s.

"History is repeating itself in a way. Thailand seems sadly stuck in a familiar cycle where Shinawatra-led governments come to power only to face mounting pressure, street protests, and an uncertain future," Napon commented.

Thuy Lam (Bangkok Post, AP, CNA)