As hostilities between the US, Israel, and Iran intensify, seawater desalination plants, the primary source of potable water for the Gulf region, are being drawn into the conflict.

On 8/3, Bahrain accused Iran of a drone attack that damaged one of its vital desalination plants. Bahrain relies almost entirely on desalinated water to supply drinking water to its approximately 1.6 million residents.

Iran has not commented on the incident, but a day earlier, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi stated that the US had attacked an Iranian desalination plant on Qeshm island in the Gulf. "The US created this precedent, not Iran", he wrote on social media.

A Bahraini power and seawater desalination plant project viewed from above. Photo: Invest.bh

Desalination plants are industrial facilities that separate salt and minerals from seawater or brackish water, transforming it into fresh water safe for domestic use and production. Plants in the Gulf primarily use thermal distillation or reverse osmosis technology to convert seawater into potable water.

The Middle East currently accounts for over 40% of global desalination capacity, with about 5,000 plants in operation. This technology provides the main supply of drinking water for millions of people in a region inherently scarce in natural fresh water.

"This truly is a strike at the Achilles' heel. These desalination plants are even more important than energy infrastructure for Gulf nations. They are their critical vulnerability", said Hussein Ibish, a senior fellow at the Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington.

In Kuwait, approximately 90% of household water comes from desalination plants. This figure is about 86% in Oman, 70% in Saudi Arabia, and 42% in the UAE. Israel also depends on this technology for about 80% of its drinking water.

"If Iran intentionally targets desalination plants, it would be a nightmare scenario for Middle Eastern nations that have already significantly depleted their interceptor missile stockpiles", analysts from Al Jazeera warned.

For many outside the Middle East, the Iran conflict's greatest concern is its impact on energy markets. The Gulf supplies about one-third of global crude oil exports, and energy revenues are the backbone of regional economies.

However, the water supply system for Gulf cities is equally crucial and similarly vulnerable. Desalination infrastructure is a vital water source for cities, industrial zones, and the tourism sector across the Gulf.

"Everyone sees Saudi Arabia and its neighbors as oil nations. But I call them saltwater kingdoms. They are artificial water superpowers powered by fossil fuels", said Michael Christopher Low, director of the Middle East Center at the University of Utah. "That is both a great achievement of the 20th century and a weakness".

This large-scale power and desalination plant on the coast of Dubai. Photo: Time

The current conflict escalated on 28/2 after US and Israeli strikes on Iran. Since then, attacks have increasingly moved closer to critical desalination facilities on all sides.

On 2/3, debris from an intercepted Iranian drone near Jebel Ali port in Dubai fell less than 20 km from one of the world's largest desalination plants. Damage was also reported at the Fujairah F1 power and water complex in the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and at Kuwait's Doha West desalination plant.

Many desalination plants in the Gulf are directly integrated with power plants, meaning attacks on power infrastructure can also disrupt water production.

"This is asymmetric warfare", noted David Michel, a senior expert on water security at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS). "Iran cannot retaliate equally against the US and Israel, but it can inflict losses on Gulf countries to pressure them into intervening".

Gulf governments and US officials have long recognized this risk. If major desalination plants are destroyed, some cities could lose most of their drinking water within days.

A 2010 US Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) analysis warned that attacks on desalination infrastructure could trigger a national crisis, and water disruptions could last for months if critical equipment is destroyed.

During the 1990-1991 Gulf War, Iraqi forces sabotaged numerous power stations and desalination facilities as they retreated from Kuwait. Simultaneously, millions of barrels of crude oil were discharged into the sea, causing one of history's largest oil spills.

The oil slick at the time threatened the seawater intake pipes of regional desalination plants. Kuwait then had almost no fresh water and had to import water urgently.

As damage from Iranian attacks spread, the UAE and Qatar reportedly urged US President Donald Trump to shorten the campaign.

Fire and black smoke rise after a drone strike on the Fujairah oil and gas facility in the UAE on 3/3. Photo: AP

The UAE, which has endured over 800 ballistic missile and drone attacks, is even considering direct airstrikes against Iran. "We are looking at proactive defensive measures against Iran", an UAE source told Axios.

However, not only Gulf nations face the risk of water shortages. Iran could also come under pressure if the conflict escalates.

Unlike many of its neighbors heavily reliant on desalination, Iran can still draw water from rivers, reservoirs, and groundwater. However, after five years of severe drought, water levels in Tehran's five reservoirs have fallen to only about 10% of their capacity. President Masoud Pezeshkian warned that the Iranian capital might even need to be evacuated.

"They considered evacuating the capital last summer", said Ed Cullinane, Middle East editor for Global Water Intelligence. "I cannot imagine what this summer will be like with attacks continuing".

Thanh Tam (According to AP, WSJ, Chosun)