Japanese Prime Minister Ishiba Shigeru, 68, announced his resignation as president of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) on 7/9, meaning he will leave the premiership after less than a year in office.

He directed the LDP to hold an election for a new leader, but the process of selecting Japan’s next prime minister will be more complex than in the past. This is because the LDP, which has held power for decades, and its coalition partner lost their majority in both houses of parliament during Ishiba’s term.

First, the LDP will choose a new president to replace Ishiba. LDP lawmakers and local party officials across Japan will nominate candidates starting on 8/9. Candidates typically need 20 nominations from party lawmakers to qualify.

Next, the LDP candidates will debate and campaign across Japan before a vote by LDP lawmakers and rank-and-file members.

Based on the 2024 election, votes in the first round are split: half for party lawmakers and half proportionally allocated to regular members. The candidate who secures a majority of the total votes becomes party president.

If no candidate wins a majority, the top two candidates advance to a second round. In the second round, each party lawmaker gets one vote, and the regular members’ votes are reduced to 47, with each vote representing a prefecture.

In the rare event of a tie, the winner is determined by drawing lots. While this has never happened in a party leadership election, it was used to choose the head of the LDP's upper house lawmakers in 2010.

In 2024, nine candidates ran, and Ishiba won in the second round.

Prime Minister Ishiba Shigeru at a press conference in Tokyo on 7/9. Photo: AFP

Prime Minister Ishiba Shigeru at a press conference in Tokyo on 7/9. Photo: AFP

Because the LDP doesn't hold a majority in either the upper or lower house, the new LDP leader won't automatically become prime minister. In 1994, the LDP formed a three-party coalition with its biggest rival, the Social Democratic Party of Japan, and a new small party to regain power, resulting in Social Democratic Party leader Tomiichi Murayama becoming prime minister.

Based on historical precedent, the more powerful lower house votes for the prime minister first. Lawmakers can nominate any candidate from that body, including opposition leaders.

A candidate who wins a majority in the first round becomes prime minister. If not, the top two candidates face a second round.

After the lower house vote, the upper house follows the same process. However, only lower house members are eligible to be prime minister. The new Japanese leader can call a snap general election to seek a public mandate.

Potential replacements for Ishiba include Sanae Takaichi, 64, from the LDP. If chosen, she would be Japan’s first female prime minister.

Takaichi is an LDP veteran who has served as minister of internal affairs and communications and minister for economic security, but she lost to Ishiba in the second round of last year's party leadership election.

Known for her conservative views, including wanting to revise the pacifist constitution, Takaichi regularly visits the Yasukuni Shrine to commemorate war dead, despite some Asian countries viewing the shrine as a symbol of past Japanese militarism.

She is also notable for opposing the Bank of Japan's interest rate hikes and advocating for increased spending to boost the economy.

Sanae Takaichi speaking at a press conference in Tokyo in 2021. Photo: Reuters

Sanae Takaichi speaking at a press conference in Tokyo in 2021. Photo: Reuters

Another LDP candidate is Shinjiro Koizumi, 44. A scion of a political family that has led Japan for over a century, Koizumi would be the youngest prime minister in the modern era.

In last year's party leadership election, Koizumi presented himself as a reformer who could restore public trust in the LDP. While Takaichi left the government after losing to Ishiba, Koizumi remained as agriculture minister, tackling rising rice prices.

Another LDP figure is Yoshimasa Hayashi, 64, the current chief cabinet secretary, a key role serving as the government's spokesperson. He assumed this position in 12/2023 under former Prime Minister Fumio Kishida.

Hayashi has held various positions, including defense minister, agriculture minister, and foreign minister, often serving as a temporary replacement after an incumbent's resignation.

He ran in the 2012 and 2024 LDP leadership elections and has repeatedly called for respecting the Bank of Japan's independence on monetary policy.

From the opposition, former Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda, 68, leads the center-left Constitutional Democratic Party, the largest opposition group. As prime minister from 2011 to 2012, he worked with the LDP to double the consumption tax to 10% to curb rising public debt, earning a reputation as a fiscal hawk.

Yoshihiko Noda at a campaign event in Tokyo in 2024. Photo: Reuters

Yoshihiko Noda at a campaign event in Tokyo in 2024. Photo: Reuters

In the July upper house election, he shifted his stance, calling for a temporary cut in the consumption tax on food. He has also repeatedly called for phasing out the central bank's massive stimulus packages.

Finally, Yuichiro Tamaki, 56, leads the opposition Democratic Party for the People. A former finance ministry official, he co-founded the party in 2018 and advocates for increasing real incomes through tax breaks and consumption tax cuts.

He also supports strengthening defense capabilities, tightening regulations on foreign land purchases, and building more nuclear power plants. He urges the central bank to be cautious in phasing out economic stimulus.

Pham Giang (Reuters, AP)