Glassnode data indicates that Bitcoin (BTC) holders across nearly all wallet cohorts have resumed aggressive selling amid persistent geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. This distribution wave is primarily driven by retail investors, who are exerting significant selling pressure on the market.
Glassnode's Accumulation Trend Score, which assesses whether different wallet cohorts are accumulating or distributing, has dropped to approximately 0,04 points, indicating widespread net distribution across the network.
This score ranges from 0 to 1, reflecting the network's overall accumulation or distribution based on the behavior of various wallet cohorts. A score closer to 1 suggests strong accumulation by investors, especially large wallets. Conversely, a score closer to 0 indicates a distribution phase in the market, where multiple wallet cohorts are selling concurrently.
Detailed analysis reveals that small BTC holders are leading the selling trend. Wallets holding one to 10 BTC, typically associated with individual investors, are actively selling.
The cohort holding 10 to 100 BTC is also distributing at a significant pace. Even larger "players" are part of this trend. Wallets holding 1,000 BTC or more are net sellers, although their selling intensity is lower compared to smaller wallet groups.
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Bitcoin's logo placed among US dollar bills. Photo: CNBC |
Bitcoin's logo placed among US dollar bills. Photo: CNBC
Despite widespread distribution, Bitcoin has shown relatively strong resilience compared to traditional macro assets.
The USD Index has risen above 99,5 points, the 10-year US treasury bond yield reached a one-month high above 4,2%, and Brent oil is trading around 100 USD per barrel. Typically, rising yields, a stronger US dollar, and high oil prices create significant headwinds for risk assets.
BTC maintaining its position around 70,000 USD indicates underlying demand persists, even as data points to investors withdrawing in the short term. The market value of the world's largest cryptocurrency has held above this mark for three sessions, improving over 13% from its year-to-date low.
According to Quinn Thompson, founder of Lekker Capital, it is increasingly clear that the Strait of Hormuz remains difficult to control. Control may be nearly impossible without significant concessions to Iran, the deployment of ground troops, or acceptance of major military risks. "The situation from here will be very tense, and as parties are cornered, volatility will increase", he predicted.
While not as widely reported as news from Iran, concerns about a potential private credit market collapse remain significant. Morgan Stanley is the latest major financial group to impose withdrawal limits, this time on its 8 billion USD North Haven Private Income Fund.
Morgan Stanley shares fell 4% on 12/3, leading declines among financial stocks. JPMorgan, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo dropped nearly 3%. In private equity, KKR, Apollo Global, and Ares Management all decreased by 3% to 4%.
According to James Butterfill, head of research at CoinShares, oil has become the primary factor influencing cryptocurrency prices. "The dominant variable for global asset valuation is no longer the labor market; it is oil and the geopolitical crisis behind it", he stated.
This expert believes the latest US payroll report, lower than expected, should have prompted the market to price in faster interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve (Fed). However, the response was limited as investors focused on rising energy costs due to the Middle East conflict.
According to Dom Harz, co-founder of blockchain layer-2 BOB, a possible reason is that large investors increasingly seek to leverage more of BTC's potential beyond merely tracking price movements.
"Institutions no longer want only exposure to Bitcoin but also seek infrastructure that maximizes its financial utility", he said, emphasizing growing interest in Bitcoin-based financial applications that enable users to spend, save, and earn through the network.
Tieu Gu (according to CoinDesk)
