At the close of trading on 28/8, domestic coffee prices in Tay Nguyen reached 123,200-123,800 VND per kg, an increase of 1,500 VND compared to the previous day. Compared to the beginning of August, this price is 19% higher and a significant 39% increase from the July low, bringing domestic coffee prices to a three-month peak.
In the global market, both Robusta and Arabica coffee prices surged. In London, the September Robusta futures contract increased from 4,201 USD per ton (18/8) to 5,057 USD per ton, an 856 USD jump in just 10 days. Further out contracts also added 177-188 USD per ton, equivalent to 4-4.1%.
Arabica coffee on the New York Stock Exchange also reversed course with strong gains after several declining sessions. The September contract reached 8,682 USD per ton, a 215 USD increase; other contracts added 183-287 USD/ton, or 2.41-3.49%.
According to the Vietnam Coffee-Cocoa Association (VICOFA), in addition to declining supply, the 50% US tariff on Brazilian coffee has stalled trade between the two countries, further pushing up prices. Brazilian and American coffee associations are lobbying President Donald Trump to consider waiving the tariff, as coffee is a commodity not produced domestically in the US.
The scarcity of supply is evident as Brazil's July green coffee exports fell 20.4% year-on-year to 161,000 tons. Arabica exports decreased by 21%, while Robusta exports declined by 49%. Total July exports decreased by 28% to 2.7 million bags; cumulative exports for the first seven months of the year fell 21% to 22.2 million bags.
Global coffee stocks are also at low levels. According to the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), which lists and monitors certified Arabica stocks for futures trading, Robusta inventory as of 26/8 was only 66,110 tons, down from 70,120 tons at the end of July. Arabica inventory also decreased to 716,578 bags, its lowest level in 15 months.
Meanwhile, Vietnam recorded strong export growth. From 6-12/8, coffee exports reached 16,800 tons, 24% higher than the previous week. From the beginning of the year to 12/8, the country exported over 918,000 tons of coffee, a 41% increase compared to the same period in 2024.
Thi Ha
