Gold opened this week at 3,366 USD per ounce and closed at 3,350 USD, contrary to the predictions of many Wall Street analysts and individual investors. They had anticipated that President Donald Trump's tax policies and the tax reform bill would drive safe-haven flows into gold, supporting further price increases.
Despite the recent correction, most experts and investors remain optimistic about the upcoming gold price. In Kitco's weekly survey, 8 out of 15 Wall Street analysts expect prices to rise next week, while 6 experts believe the precious metal will remain flat. Only one analyst holds a negative view on gold prices.
An online survey of 223 individual investors also revealed that 163 predict a rise in gold prices. Only 38 anticipate continued market weakness, while 47 expect prices to remain stable.
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Gold price chart for the past week. Photo: Kitco |
Gold price chart for the past week. Photo: Kitco
Rich Checkan, president and CEO of Asset Strategies International, is among the experts confident in a price increase next week. "Concerns about the fate of the Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman, tensions in the Middle East, Asia, and Europe, along with the clear weakening trend of the USD, will support gold's upward trend," he said.
James Stanley, senior market strategist at Forex.com, agrees, stating that world gold prices are stagnating around 3,350-3,362 USD, but there is no evidence to suggest that sellers have a long-term advantage.
Adrian Day, president of Adrian Day Asset Management, also leans towards the possibility of rising prices. He suggests the Fed chair is hesitant to cut interest rates because inflation is still unchecked and economic and monetary instability make maintaining current rates reasonable. Fed Chair Jerome Powell's desire to protect the institution's independence from pressure by US President Donald Trump could also be a reason for the lack of rate cuts in the near future.
According to Day, these factors are keeping gold prices high. If the economy weakens as he predicts, a new class of investors will enter the market and support the upward momentum.
Meanwhile, Kitco's senior analyst, Jim Wyckoff, believes gold prices will consolidate next week. "Trading will continue to be sideways amid the quiet summer season and the lack of major market-moving news," he said.
Next week, the world gold market could be influenced by several events, including the European Central Bank (ECB) interest rate decision, the Fed Chair's opening remarks at an event in Washington, and the release of US data such as June home sales, weekly jobless claims, and the S&P Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI).
Domestically, the SJC gold price closed the week at 119.7 million VND for buying and 121.2 million VND for selling, a decrease of about 300,000 VND compared to the beginning of the week.
Minh Anh (Kitco News)
