Many securities companies and investment funds at the beginning of this year considered 1,500 points to be the most optimistic scenario for the VN-Index, 18% higher than the end of last year. However, most have adjusted their forecasts to be much more positive after the 4-month rally, especially when the index surpassed 1,600 points mid-this month.
In a late July article, Petri Deryng, head of PYN Elite Fund, stated that the VN-Index reaching 1,800 points by Christmas (end of 12/2025) is not an impossible scenario. However, he noted that adjustments may occur due to profit-taking activities by domestic investors.
According to Deryng, the market has been supported by several factors during the recent rally, such as the results of tariff negotiations between Vietnam and the US, coupled with the government's implementation of measures to boost economic growth and the clear prospect of a stock market upgrade. He expects the upward trend to be supported by low valuations, positive investor sentiment, and stable fundamentals.
With a more optimistic view, VNDirect Securities recently predicted that the VN-Index could reach 1,850-1,900 points within the next 9-12 months. VNDirect based this view on the potential market upgrade, solid corporate profit growth, and the prospect of the US Federal Reserve (Fed) easing monetary policy.
Without specifying a timeframe like VNDirect, the analysis team at An Binh Securities (ABS) expects the VN-Index to reach 1,792-1,864 points in the "medium term." This prediction far exceeds the most optimistic scenario mentioned by ABS earlier this year, which was reaching 1,408-1,435 points.
Compared to the current price range, ABS's adjusted scenario suggests that the VN-Index has room to increase by about 200 points, equivalent to 14%. According to this team, the medium-term uptrend is being reinforced as cash flow continuously pours into the market, creating sessions with sudden liquidity. Institutional investors' cash flow has contributed to pushing prices up and buying back very quickly during volatile sessions.
Similar to the head of PYN Elite Fund, the ABS analysis team also noted that a short-term market correction in August is "very likely," followed by a rebound. These technical corrections in the upward trend are considered good buying points, offering investors opportunities to swap their stock portfolios after an extended rally.
In a strategy report published earlier this month, the analysis team at SSI Securities also mentioned the possibility of short-term fluctuations due to increasing profit-taking pressure as margin lending ratios rose in July. However, this team "believes in the sustainable long-term uptrend with the target of VN-Index reaching 1,750-1,800 points in 2026."
SSI Research stated that the main driver for the index to reach new highs is the recovery in profits of listed companies. The growth in profit after tax of the parent company's shareholders this year is forecast to reach 13.8%. In addition, the market upgrade event in October, if it occurs, will also help Vietnam's stock market attract about 1 billion USD in capital from ETFs following the index, thereby significantly supporting market performance in the second half of the year.
Phuong Dong
