Foreign selling pressure shows no signs of weakening, continuing since the vietnam stock market was upgraded in late september. Today, this group sold 2,100 billion dong while disbursing less than 1,400 billion dong.
This activity extends the selling streak to 16 consecutive sessions, with a total value of over 22,800 billion dong, equivalent to 900 million USD, withdrawn from the market. This marks the longest net selling streak since late 10/2024. Previously, foreign investors had a continuous selling streak of 21 sessions, totaling approximately 21,000 billion dong.
According to data from the Ho Chi Minh City Stock Exchange, foreign investors have withdrawn a total of 116,000 billion dong, or 4,5 billion USD, year-to-date. This figure is not far from the record 5,1 billion USD in sales recorded across the entire market last year.
Many experts agree that this capital withdrawal is primarily due to the impact of opportunity costs and global capital shifts. International capital is moving away from emerging markets, flowing towards areas with superior profit growth stories, such as technology stocks in the US, Japan, and Trung Quoc. However, observers note that capital withdrawal pressure in vietnam is still less severe compared to other asian stock markets, including South Korea (120 billion USD), Taiwan (35 billion USD), and India (25 billion USD).
Additionally, active funds are taking advantage of profit-taking to restructure their portfolios after months of anticipatory buying ahead of market upgrade news. This also contributes to the prolonged net selling streak, according to Dinh Quang Hinh, Director of macroeconomics and market strategy at VNDirect Securities Company.
The aggressive selling has reduced the foreign ownership ratio on the Ho Chi Minh City exchange to approximately 13%, significantly lower than the 15% recorded during the same period last year.
"Net selling pressure is unlikely to end soon as US government bond yields exceed 5%, the US Federal Reserve (Fed) continues its tightening policy, and the USD maintains its strength. This reduces the appeal of emerging markets," analysts at Tien Phong Securities Company wrote in their strategy report this month.
However, observers anticipate that capital disbursements scheduled by FTSE Russell could halt the withdrawal trend in early 2027. According to SSI, about 2,7 billion USD in passive capital tracking the FTSE index could be disbursed next year. This amount represents 0,7% of the current market capitalization and is equivalent to 70% of foreign net selling in the first nine months of this year.
The foreign selling pressure significantly impacts the VN-Index. The index representing the Ho Chi Minh City exchange extended its decline to six consecutive sessions, closing at 1,704 points. Some analysis groups forecast that continued selling pressure in the coming sessions could cause the market to breach the psychological threshold of 1,700 points and retreat further to the 1,680-point range.
Phuong Dong
