The government has outlined its updated growth scenarios and key solutions for the remaining quarters of 2026 in Resolution 168, dated 27/6. This initiative aims to achieve a 2026 growth target of 10% or more while maintaining macroeconomic stability.

Reports from ministries and localities project the full-year gross domestic product to increase by 8,7%. To reach the double-digit annual growth target of 10%, the government has set a gross domestic product increase of 11,9% for the second half of the year. Under this scenario, several sectors and sub-sectors have high growth targets, including: electricity production (16,9%), construction (17,6%), and accommodation and food services (17,3%).

Geographically, the growth scenario for the second half of the year for the two economic engines, TP HCM and Ha Noi, is set at 10,2% and 11% respectively. This represents an increase of 1,73% and 3,13% compared to their estimated gross regional domestic product growth in the first half of the year. Other provinces and cities targeting high growth in the latter half of this year include: Hai Phong and Quang Ninh (13%), Bac Ninh (12,5%), Hung Yen (11,5%), and Da Nang (11,22%).

Lach Huyen Port complex, Hai Phong, 20/1/2025. Photo by Le Tan

The government acknowledges that achieving the 2026 growth target of 10% or more faces numerous challenges. The global situation, particularly the Middle East conflict, significantly impacted the domestic economy in the first half of the year.

To realize the double-digit growth target, the government requires leaders of ministries, sectors, and provinces to innovate their thinking and approaches. They must demonstrate the highest determination to achieve the updated growth scenario.

Accordingly, localities that have met their targets for the first six months of the year must continue to strive for higher achievements. Provinces and cities that have not yet met their targets must be determined to complete them, especially Ha Noi, TP HCM, and other localities serving as growth drivers.

Regarding fiscal policy, the Ministry of Finance must implement a reasonably expansive policy. This includes urgently submitting to the government flexible adjustments to certain regulations on petrol, oil, and jet fuel taxes, aligning with global price developments this month. Other proposals the ministry needs to submit include: allocating the 2025 central budget revenue surplus, the mid-term public investment plan capital for the 2026-2030 period, and ensuring funds for the basic salary increase from 1/7.

Ministries, agencies, and localities must focus resources on accelerating the disbursement of public investment capital for 2026, ensuring 100% disbursement of allocated plans. Disbursement scenarios need to be developed in detail weekly, monthly, and quarterly, serving as a basis for early warnings and timely management.

The State Bank of Vietnam must implement a proactive and flexible monetary policy, deploying solutions to stabilize interest rates and control inflation. Credit quality needs improvement, directing capital flows towards production, business, priority sectors, economic growth drivers, and key projects serving socio-economic development.

Additionally, the real estate market needs healthy development. Localities such as Ha Noi, TP HCM, Hai Phong, Da Nang, Dong Nai, Quang Ninh, Bac Ninh, Hung Yen, and Ninh Binh must proactively review and determine rental housing needs by segment. This serves as a basis for planning and resource allocation.

Thuy Truong