Stocks rose for 4 consecutive weeks, although there was strong divergence in the last week of August. The VN-Index closed above 1,682 points before the 2/9 National Day holiday, up nearly 12% compared to July and 32.8% compared to the beginning of the year. The VN30 ended last month above 1,865 points, up 15.5% compared to July and 38.7% compared to the beginning of the year.
In August, most sectors performed positively, notably stocks in securities, banking, and real estate. In addition, cash flow also sought out stocks with unique stories in the port, insurance, retail, and steel sectors.
Market liquidity set a new record, with trading volume on the HoSE reaching 35 billion shares, according to Saigon - Hanoi Securities (SHS). This represents a 12% increase compared to July, with an average of about 1.67 billion shares changing hands per session. However, foreign investors net sold a sudden nearly 42,200 billion VND on the HoSE.
SHS predicts that in the short term, the VN-Index will maintain growth above its nearest support level - around 1,650 points. Similarly, the VN30 index may also experience a high degree of divergence, with selling pressure around 1,880 points.
"The market is under pressure at the old peak, with short-term profit-taking signals and restructuring in many stocks after a period of strong growth," the analysis team noted.
Therefore, experts advise investors to maintain a reasonable portfolio weighting. Investors should direct cash flow into stocks with good fundamentals, leading in strategic sectors, and outperforming the overall economic growth.
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Investors are monitoring the market at the headquarters of a securities company in TP HCM. Photo: An Khuong |
Investors are monitoring the market at the headquarters of a securities company in TP HCM. Photo: An Khuong
Predicting the post-holiday session, VPBank Securities (VPBankS) believes the market's upward momentum will continue in the absence of adverse information and with many stock groups remaining positive. Therefore, they predict a high probability of an increase in points, but the next challenge for the market is the 1,700-point mark to confirm a new uptrend.
Meanwhile, Vietcap Securities offers three scenarios for the VN-Index. The positive scenario (35% probability) sees the market surpassing the 1,695-point peak, approaching the 1,720-point area (+/-5 points) led by large-cap stocks.
The neutral scenario, with a 55% probability, sees the VN-Index fluctuating in the range of 1,660-1,690 points (+/-5 points) with the regulation of banking, securities, and retail groups helping to counterbalance declines in other sectors.
In the negative scenario, the market may correct downwards, but the probability of breaking through the 1,625-point support level is only 10%.
Meanwhile, Beta Securities (BSI) believes that the sustained domestic demand serves as a "cushion" to balance and limit negative impacts.
In the short term, analysis teams from many securities companies suggest that "sideways movement" and "tug-of-war" are common keywords in the market. Therefore, they advise investors to carefully observe market developments before acting.
From a technical perspective, the VN-Index maintains a positive trend in the medium and long term, holding firmly above key moving averages (MA).
Indicators such as SAR (Stop And Reverse) and MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) maintain optimistic signals, suggesting that the current trend's strength has not shown signs of weakening. However, the risk of sudden fluctuations or adjustments still exists.
With the above assessments, the BSI analysis team suggests that investors should focus on stock selection, prioritizing stocks in leading sectors that continue to attract large cash flows. In addition, they should take advantage of fluctuations to restructure portfolios or increase weighting in attractive price zones.
"Instead of chasing short-term excitement, investors should prioritize a cautious strategy, strict risk management, and reasonable portfolio allocation," experts recommend.
Tat Dat
