The stock market is currently on an upward trend, with an 8-session winning streak that pushed the VN-Index from 1,660 points to 1,741 points by the end of last week. Over the past month, the benchmark index for the Ho Chi Minh City Stock Exchange has accumulated 160 points, conquering several key psychological thresholds. The index is now just 25 points away from its previous peak.
Beyond the index value, the market also shows other positive signs. Foreign investors have resumed buying after an extended period of net selling. This group net bought 4,400 billion VND, absorbing all shares sold by domestic individual investors.
Cash flow is spreading across many stock groups, helping average daily liquidity improve to 23,700 billion VND. Two key stock groups, banking and real estate, both showed positive trading performance. While banking stocks attracted funds due to news of capital increases at some banks, the real estate sector rose thanks to stocks related to Vingroup.
A VnExpress survey of several securities companies indicates that most expect the positive trend to continue this week, potentially bringing the VN-Index back to its previous peak around 1,766 points.
Vu Minh Duc, Deputy Director of Research and Analysis at Vietcap Securities Company, forecasts a 70% probability that the VN-Index will continue to rise, setting a new record at 1,770 points. In a more optimistic scenario, he predicts the index could advance to 1,800 points, thereby exceeding its previous intraday high of 1,794 points.
"The clearest positive factor is the VN-Index's upward momentum and foreign investors' three consecutive net buying sessions – a phenomenon not seen in many prior weeks. As a result, investor sentiment is more optimistic," Duc commented.
The expert added that the 10/12 meeting of the US Federal Reserve (Fed), with the possibility of a policy rate reduction, is an event that could positively impact global stocks, thereby helping to maintain the upward trend for the domestic index.
Sharing this view, the analysis team at Mirae Asset Vietnam Securities Company (MASVN) leans towards a scenario where the index continues to climb to 1,780 points. In their new strategy report released last weekend, the team noted that the market will advance towards its previous peak, driven by widespread cash flow and positive macroeconomic expectations.
Similarly, experts from Tien Phong Securities Company (TPS) also believe that the prolonged rally is creating room for the market to move towards a short-term target price zone of 1,800 points.
However, all analysis teams emphasize that technical corrections could occur amidst the upward trend. Negative volatility might increase as cash flow becomes more cautious when market valuations reach long-term averages.
Additionally, the stock market faces several risks, such as the prolonged weakening of the dong compared to the USD, which impacts the return of foreign capital. Temporary liquidity strains at commercial banks are continuing in december and could extend into 1/2026 due to seasonal factors, leading to more cautious cash flow into stocks.
"Therefore, it is difficult to expect a short-term boom in the stock market," said Vu Minh Duc.
Many analysis teams believe the market will face strong profit-taking pressure as it approaches historical peaks, especially if it surpasses 1,800 points. T+ day trading opportunities are considered limited during this period. They advise investors to realize profits on stocks that have seen significant gains to proactively manage risk and maintain buying power as the market approaches important resistance levels.
For investors holding a significant proportion of cash, experts suggest disbursing funds into stock groups with medium-term growth potential for the coming year, such as: securities, energy, infrastructure, and industrial production.
Phuong Dong
