HSBC's recently released report states this assessment. According to the General Statistics Office, Vietnam's gross domestic product (GDP) is projected to increase by 8,02% in 2025. This figure, the second highest in the 2011-2025 period, slightly surpasses HSBC's own forecast of 7,9%.

"This outcome easily positions Vietnam as the growth champion in 2025, not only within ASEAN but across all of Asia", the report noted.

Lach Huyen port complex, Hai Phong, on 20/1/2024. Photo by Le Tan.

HSBC highlighted robust trade as a notable driver, reaching a record 928 billion US dollars, an 18% increase compared to 2024. This growth occurred despite ongoing tariff shocks, attributed to frontloading activities and Vietnam's "suitable" export products.

The artificial intelligence (AI) boom significantly benefited electronics. This product group accounted for 35% of total export turnover last year, a substantial rise from just 5% in 2010. Conversely, the share of textiles and footwear declined from a peak of 30% in 2005 to more than 10%.

Beyond timely products, Vietnam also expanded exports to the US, overcoming tariff concerns. Despite facing reciprocal tariffs of 20%, Vietnam gained market share in products such as phones, textiles, and footwear.

Furthermore, the domestic sector demonstrated resilience, providing strong support for the economy. Personal consumption increased by 8%, driven by a large consumer base, while investment accelerated to nearly 9%. Tourism experienced a robust recovery, with visitor numbers reaching 120% of 2019 levels, generating 40 billion US dollars in revenue, equivalent to 7% of GDP.

For 2026, HSBC forecasts Vietnam's GDP growth at 6,7%, driven by accelerated public investment and resilient exports. Currently, this bank's forecast is among the most optimistic within international organizations, second only to UOB. Last week, the Singaporean bank raised its forecast from 7% to 7,5%.

Mirroring UOB's caution regarding a potential decline in export orders, HSBC acknowledged that Vietnam is not immune to the risk of global trade slowdown. However, the bank believes that having "suitable" products and an expanding market share in the US could help the economy navigate some challenges.

Regarding the Government's target of 10% or higher GDP growth, HSBC suggests it requires a significant "impetus" to achieve, including exceptional trade performance, substantial investment, and robust consumption.

Vien Thong