Long-term Bitcoin (BTC) holders have seen greater returns in this uptrend cycle than in many previous cycles, according to data from on-chain analytics platform Glassnode. Since the beginning of 2024, LTHs (investors who have held BTC for at least 155 days) have realized profits on 3.27 million BTC, equivalent to almost 365 billion USD.
This figure surpasses the 2021 uptrend (just over 3 million BTC) and far exceeds the 2013 cycle. However, it still trails the 2017 bull run, when LTH profits reached a record 3.93 million BTC.
 |
An investor holds a Bitcoin logo. Photo: CNBC |
An investor holds a Bitcoin logo. Photo: CNBC
Profits for long-term holders approaching previous peaks also highlight increasing selling pressure. Galaxy Digital reports around 80,000 BTC listed for sale, while another 26,000 BTC were recently traded.
The market has also seen the return of long-dormant wallets with large balances. According to data aggregator Lookonchain, a wallet that received 100,784 BTC 7 years ago has ended its dormancy and resumed trading. Instead of continuing to hold Bitcoin, this wallet sold a significant portion and moved into Ether, the world's second-largest cryptocurrency.
"These combined signals suggest that the Bitcoin market may have entered the final stages of its uptrend cycle," CoinDesk analysts observed.
Bitcoin is currently down about 4% since the beginning of August and 12% below its all-time high of 124,500 USD. The world's largest cryptocurrency is trading around 110,000-112,000 USD. A negative close for August would halt a four-month winning streak, the longest since 3/2024.
On-chain data shows that Bitcoin traders have used the short-term holder realized price (STH-RP), currently at 108,800 USD, as a support level. This metric tracks the average acquisition price of coins transacted on-chain over the past 155 days, excluding exchange reserves. During uptrends, the STH-RP often acts as a key support level.
The short-term holder spent output profit ratio (STH-SOPR) indicates that short-term investors are selling at a loss. The STH-SOPR measures profit or loss for investors holding coins for less than 155 days. Historically, this behavior tends to occur near local market bottoms. However, this is not necessarily a strong reversal signal.
Meanwhile, the options market points to a "max pain" level of 116,000 USD. "Max pain" refers to the strike price at which the greatest number of options holders will suffer losses upon contract expiry. This is also the price zone that inflicts the most financial damage on the majority of option buyers, while conversely benefiting option sellers. If this level is higher than the spot price, it suggests a potential impending decline.
Tieu Gu (CoinDesk)
