Speaking to VnExpress, the Department of Crop Production and Plant Protection, under the Ministry of Agriculture and Environment, announced that the 2026 lychee output has significantly dropped, primarily due to adverse weather conditions impacting flower bud differentiation, blooming, and fruit set.

Across the nation, approximately 55,000 hectares are dedicated to lychee cultivation, primarily in the northern provinces. Bac Ninh (formerly Bac Giang area) stands as the largest cultivation zone, spanning nearly 29,800 hectares. Its estimated output for this year is around 95,000 tons, representing 59.5% of the target and a significant reduction from the 215,000 tons produced in 2025. Experts caution that this figure is an estimate based on current flowering conditions; actual yields during harvest may vary and could potentially be higher.

In Hai Phong (formerly Hai Duong area), lychee cultivation covers approximately 9,345 hectares, with an estimated yield of 55,000 tons, a decrease from last year. Other provinces, including Hung Yen and Dak Lak, have smaller cultivation areas, with approximately 1,860 hectares and 2,000 hectares respectively.

Notably, early-season lychee production this year is projected to reach only 85,000-90,000 tons, marking a 35-50% reduction from the same period last year.

Lychees in the Northern region. Photo: Lychee wholesale market

The dwindling supply has driven a sharp increase in early-season lychee prices. Farm-gate prices are fluctuating between 50,000-95,000 Vietnamese dong per kg, reaching an unprecedented high. In the retail market, early-ripening lychees typically sell for 140,000-180,000 Vietnamese dong per kg, with premium or air-freighted batches fetching up to 195,000-210,000 Vietnamese dong per kg.

The Department of Crop Production and Plant Protection attributes the primary cause to adverse weather conditions during late 2025 and early 2026. A mild winter, with early-year temperatures 0.5-1 degree Celsius above the multi-year average, combined with persistent drizzle and fog from late February through March, disrupted the crucial flower bud differentiation process. This resulted in uneven flowering across many orchards, a phenomenon known as "flowers mixed with shoots", thereby significantly lowering fruit set rates.

Elevated air humidity during flowering also hindered pollination, fertilization, and the retention of young fruit, while simultaneously fostering the proliferation of pests and diseases. Furthermore, escalating material costs alongside low flowering rates prompted some growers to reduce their investment in orchard care, leading to further declines in productivity.

Beyond Vietnam, China's lychee supply also shows signs of contraction. Chinese media reports indicate that major growing regions like Guangdong and Hainan experienced poor flowering due to a warm winter and ill-timed wet weather. Additionally, after a bumper harvest year, lychee trees naturally enter a lower-yield cycle, further contributing to reduced output. This combination has led to early price increases and a market reversal compared to 2025.

Thi Ha