Rapidan Energy reported that tensions in the Middle East have disrupted approximately 20% of the global oil supply over the past 10 days. This disruption is due to oil tankers being almost unable to pass through the Strait of Hormuz. Before declining in today's trading session, oil prices had surpassed 100 US dollars on 9/3.
The energy consulting firm noted that the previous largest oil supply disruption occurred during the Suez Crisis in 1956, when Britain, France, and Israel attacked Egypt's Sinai Peninsula. At that time, about 10% of the global oil supply was interrupted.
A key difference in the current crisis, according to Rapidan Energy analysts, is the world's near absence of spare capacity to compensate for the disruption. Saudi Arabia and the UAE hold most of the world's spare capacity, but their supplies are also currently interrupted due to the Strait of Hormuz blockade.
Analysts estimate that the disruption at the Strait of Hormuz, caused by the Middle East conflict, impacts global supply nearly three times more than the 1973 Arab oil embargo, which disrupted about 7% of the world's supply.
"The conflict has stalled a large portion of global oil supply, disrupting most of the spare capacity held by key producing nations," a Rapidan expert stated. Consequently, the market now has almost no safety cushion, and no producer can quickly offset the lost output.
Rapidan Energy's assessment of global oil supply disruptions during various crises:
| Crisis | Supply disrupted (%) | Remaining spare capacity (%) | Location of spare capacity |
| Suez Canal Crisis (1956-1957) | 10 | 35 | US, parts of the Gulf region |
| Arab Oil Embargo (1973) | 7 | 8 | Saudi Arabia/Gulf region |
| Saudi Arabia/Gulf region | 5 | 5 | Saudi Arabia |
| Gulf War (1990-1991) | 9 | 4 | Saudi Arabia |
| Middle East Conflict (2026) | 20 | 0 | None |
Therefore, Rapidan Energy suggests that the global oil market will likely rebalance by suppressing demand as oil prices rise sharply. The US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) is considered "limited and insufficient to fully compensate" for the oil stranded in the Persian Gulf region.
The US Department of Energy estimates the SPR currently holds approximately 415 million barrels of oil, representing 58% of its maximum capacity of 714 million barrels. A White House official told CNBC last week that President Donald Trump's administration believes "the oil market remains well-supplied, and if further action is needed, we will take it."
Experts indicate that member countries of the International Energy Agency (IEA) are under pressure to release strategic reserves, as this is almost the last option to boost supply.
Meanwhile, G7 finance ministers have met to discuss the possibility of coordinating oil releases from reserves. However, French Finance Minister Roland Lescure stated that the group has not yet made a decision.
Tu Anh (according to CNBC)
