At the online conference between the government and localities on economic growth scenarios on 16/7, Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh stated that the Central Committee, the National Assembly, and the government had previously set a GDP growth target of at least 8% for this year.

At this conference, the government proposed a more specific target of 8.3-8.5% GDP growth for the year, aiming to create momentum for double-digit growth in the 2026-2030 period. The government will issue a new resolution on assigning targets and managing growth scenarios.

"To achieve this goal, we need to determine the necessary actions and identify the pillars and drivers of growth," he said, emphasizing that all ministries, agencies, corporations, and economic sectors must "strive forward."

Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh chaired a meeting with localities on the 2025 growth scenario, morning of 16/7. Photo: TTXVN

Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh chaired a meeting with localities on the 2025 growth scenario, morning of 16/7. Photo: TTXVN

In the first 6 months of the year, GDP grew by 7.52%, the highest rate for the same period in the 2011-2025 timeframe. The Ministry of Finance is currently developing two scenarios for the remainder of the year, according to Finance Minister Nguyen Van Thang.

Scenario 1 projects 8% GDP growth for 2025. This requires 8.3% growth in the third quarter and 8.5% in the fourth quarter, 0.1 percentage points higher than previous projections. The total GDP for the year is estimated at over 508 billion USD, with GDP per capita exceeding 5,000 USD.

Scenario 2 projects 8.3-8.5% GDP growth for the year. The Ministry of Finance estimates that this would require 8.9-9.2% growth in the third quarter and 9.1-9.5% in the fourth quarter. These figures are 0.6-0.9% and 0.7-1.1% higher, respectively, than the previous scenario. Under this scenario, the 2025 GDP would exceed 510 billion USD, with per capita GDP surpassing 5,020 USD.

Corresponding to these two scenarios, Mr. Thang stated that the Ministry of Finance has also projected growth scenarios for localities, corporations, and state-owned enterprises.

"These scenarios depend on the effective implementation of policies and solutions, particularly in mobilizing and utilizing resources for growth," he said.

Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh chaired an online conference with localities on economic growth scenarios, 16/7. Photo: VGP

Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh chaired an online conference with localities on economic growth scenarios, 16/7. Photo: VGP

To achieve the high growth target of 8.3-8.5%, the Ministry of Finance suggests that localities, especially leading ones like Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City, need higher growth rates than previously targeted: 8.5% for Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City, 12.5% for Quang Ninh, and 8% for Thai Nguyen. These targets are 0.4-1% higher than the initial targets set at the beginning of the year. Similarly, corporations and state-owned enterprises need to achieve approximately 0.5% higher growth than their initial targets.

For the 2026 growth scenario, the Minister said the ministry recommends reviewing sectoral, field, and local growth targets to ensure they reach at least 10%.

Regarding solutions for the growth scenarios, the Ministry of Finance suggests that ministries and localities continue implementing the resolutions and conclusions of competent authorities. Additionally, policymakers need to promote investment and mobilize approximately 111 billion USD in total social investment in the last 6 months of the year, 3 billion USD more than the previous scenario.

This includes disbursing approximately 28 billion USD (equivalent to 700,000 trillion dong) in public investment in the last two quarters. Ministries and localities must disburse 100% of this year's capital plan and the additional capital allocated from increased revenue and budget savings in 2024 (approximately 152,700 trillion dong).

Under this scenario, private investment is projected at around 60 billion USD, 3 billion USD higher than before; attracting 18.5 billion USD in FDI, with about 16 billion USD of FDI disbursed; and other investments at 7 billion USD.

The State Bank of Vietnam will proactively adjust the 2025 credit growth target (approximately 16%) if necessary, ensuring credit capital for priority sectors, fields, and projects. The banking sector needs to effectively implement the 500,000 trillion dong credit packages for businesses investing in infrastructure and digital technology, as well as the credit package for young people under 35 to purchase social housing.

The Finance Minister also emphasized solutions to boost consumption, exploit the domestic market, increase exports, develop harmonious trade with other countries, and create new growth drivers.

Phuong Dung