The Kremlin has not yet received any statement from New Delhi on the matter of India halting oil purchases from Russia. "We respect the bilateral US-India relationship, but the development of strategic cooperation between Russia and India is equally important," Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov told RIA Novosti on 3/2. He affirmed Moscow's desire to further develop bilateral relations with New Delhi.

On the same day, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak told reporters that the situation is still developing. "Currently, there are only public statements. We will see how the situation develops," Novak stated.

Novak affirmed that overall, demand for Russian energy products remains strong. "Supply will always find demand, as the current situation remains balanced," he told TASS.

Prime Minister Modi (left) and President Putin at the BRICS Summit in Russia, 10/2024. *Photo: AFP*

The Russian statements came after US President Donald Trump wrote on the social network Truth Social on 2/2, following a phone call with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, that the two countries "had reached a trade agreement."

Trump claimed that reciprocal tariffs would be reduced from 25% to 18%, and sanction tariffs of 25% on India would also be removed. In return, India "had agreed to stop buying Russian oil, and increase imports from the US, possibly even Venezuela," Trump wrote.

Modi later confirmed the agreement with the US on X, expressing his pleasure that "import tariffs on goods were reduced to 18%." However, he did not mention the issue of Russian oil in his statement.

India is believed to have reduced its purchases of Russian oil since late last year, influenced by Washington's 25% sanction tariff. Despite this, analysts believe it is difficult for the country to completely cease this activity. India needs affordable oil to maintain autonomy in its foreign policy and preserve close geopolitical and defense ties with Russia. India became a top buyer of Russian oil after the conflict in Ukraine began in 2022.

Experts are skeptical about India's willingness to fully commit to such a move. "It would be very difficult to believe if the Indian government made any clear commitments regarding Russian oil," Evan A. Feigenbaum, vice president for studies at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace policy think tank, stated on 3/2. He commented, "India has deep ties with Russia, making it not easy for them to abandon under US pressure."

Farwa Aamer, director of the South Asia Initiative at the Asia Society Policy Institute, agreed that New Delhi would hesitate to abandon a trading partner with whom it has had close ties in recent years. However, India also wants to avoid harming its rapprochement with the US after months of trade tensions.

"While changing its oil import structure to reduce reliance on Russia, India still wants to maintain stable relations," Aamer added. "This is a balancing act, as they must simultaneously navigate these two key relationships."

Credit rating agency Moody's noted that while India has reduced its purchases of Russian crude oil over the past few months, it is very difficult to stop completely and immediately. Such a move would disrupt India's economic growth. Furthermore, the agency warned that if New Delhi completely stopped buying Russian oil, it could cause supply shortages elsewhere, leading to accelerating fuel prices and inflation.

Ha Thu (according to CNBC)