Last week, as the stock market remained largely flat with mixed performance, investors gravitated towards defensive sectors or those benefiting from specific factors. Oil and gas emerged as a focal point, attracting significant capital, with PVT hitting its ceiling price and other stocks like BSR, GAS, PVS, PVD, and OIL turning green.

This morning, while the broader stock market experienced a sharp correction, the oil and gas sector surged against the trend. Numerous stocks, including PVS, PLX, PVD, OIL, BSR, and PVC, hit their maximum daily limits.

According to statistics from Thien Viet Securities (TVS), oil and gas stocks soared 70,4% in the first two months of the year, making it the top-performing sector in the market. This gain significantly outpaced other groups, such as basic resources (22,7%), financial services (16,9%), and retail (9,2%).

The oil and gas stock group achieved the best performance across the entire market in the first two months of the year. Source: TVS Research

Bui Cong Toan, a consultant at VNDirect Securities, told VnExpress that oil and gas stocks have been driven by three main factors since the beginning of the year. The first driver is the state's divestment from enterprises within the Vietnam Oil and Gas Group (PVN), notably including GAS, PLX, and BSR. This "divestment wave" became a primary catalyst for price increases in the period after the Lunar New Year. Additionally, exceptional QIV/2025 business results also fueled investor expectations.

The third growth driver, which is currently at play, relates to global oil prices amidst escalating tensions in the Middle East. This region holds the world's largest "black gold" reserves. The tensions have sharply reduced oil supply to Europe, leading to higher oil prices and significantly boosting profit margin expectations for the oil and gas sector in the near future.

Last weekend, the US and Israel launched attacks on Iran, resulting in the death of Iran's Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei. Iran promptly initiated retaliatory operations targeting Israeli territory and multiple US bases in Middle Eastern countries. Opening trade on the morning of 2/3, Brent crude oil temporarily surged 9% to 79,4 USD per barrel. Earlier, in over-the-counter (OTC) trading, prices had already increased 10% to 80 USD, leading analysts to not rule out the scenario of 100 USD being reached soon.

Nguyen Thi Thanh Nhan, an analyst at FinSuccess Investment Joint Stock Company, concurs that the Middle East conflict is clearly having a significant impact on oil supply expectations, acting as a direct catalyst for oil and gas and energy stocks in the short term. Higher oil prices could support profit margins and strengthen expectations for the progress of upstream and gas infrastructure projects, thereby improving order prospects and business activities for related enterprises.

Investors are monitoring several oil and gas stocks during the morning trading session on 2/3. Photo: Tat Dat

In this context, the VNDirect expert anticipates an "extremely strong speculative capital flow" into oil and gas stocks in the short term. The market's initial reaction to war typically involves a rise in oil prices, subsequently boosting oil and gas stocks. This has been a familiar pattern in the past.

However, Toan argues that the current situation is different. Information spreads rapidly, and capital reacts almost immediately. When a narrative becomes widely known, most expectations are typically already reflected in prices. Therefore, investors entering after the initial surge may see limited profit margins and could easily find themselves "buying at the peak." Moreover, the oil and gas sector had already experienced a strong rally, making current price levels less appealing for opening new positions.

"In investing, there is an important principle: What is too obvious is often no longer a great opportunity," the expert noted.

He advises individual investors to calmly reassess business opportunities and growth potential, avoiding situations where stock prices surge without corresponding improvements in core business performance. While speculative capital may drive stock prices higher, caution is warranted as oil and gas valuations are no longer cheap, and risks related to the global financial market persist following current political tensions.

Similarly, Thanh Nhan also notes that this is not a fundamental impact significant enough to immediately revalue the entire oil and gas sector, especially given its recent strong rally and already high valuations. Therefore, further upside potential depends on other fundamental factors.

According to her, if tensions persist for the next few days and the market continues to price in supply disruption risks, the oil and gas sector will likely maintain its upward momentum. Conversely, if developments de-escalate quickly, speculative capital could withdraw rapidly, leading to a stock price correction.

"To participate in the oil and gas sector right now, the most important thing is to distinguish between companies benefiting short-term from war sentiment and those that will truly benefit long-term if oil prices remain elevated," the FinSuccess expert emphasized.

According to Nhan, not every increase in an oil and gas stock necessarily translates to a corresponding improvement in profit outlook. For example, with PVD, the key factor to monitor is whether drilling rig rental rates genuinely increase; for BSR, the more important element is the crack spread (the difference between crude oil and refined product prices); and for PVS, the story largely lies in its backlog (value of outstanding contracts) and the progress of new project implementations. In other words, rising oil prices are only a necessary condition; the ability to convert this into revenue and profit growth is the sufficient condition.

"Caution is needed when making new purchases in the oil and gas sector at this stage," the expert advised.

Tat Dat