On 28/2, Bitcoin (BTC) dipped below 63,000 USD per unit following news of US and Israeli attacks on Iran. The world's largest cryptocurrency fell by about 3% within hours, reaching its lowest point since a drop on 5/2, when the token briefly traded below 60,000 USD.
Bitcoin later recovered above 68,000 USD but remained unstable, occasionally returning to its previous price range. The inability of BTC to sustain above 65,000 USD during the rebound suggests sellers maintain control. However, due to thinner weekend liquidity, active selling pressure was not substantial, allowing the cryptocurrency to improve its market value, fluctuating around 66,000-67,000 USD on the morning of 1/3.
"Bitcoin could fall to 60,000 USD or lower", stated Shaurya Malwa, co-lead of CoinDesk's data and token team in Asia.
Analysts note that market risk in cryptocurrencies is evident through value indicators and investor sell-offs, a familiar pattern whenever volatile news emerges. Bitcoin trades 24/7, unlike stock and bond markets which close on weekends. This makes it one of the few large, highly liquid assets traders can sell when geopolitical risks surge outside traditional trading hours.
As a result, Bitcoin often functions as a "pressure release valve" for risk-averse sentiment during weekend events. The cryptocurrency is also compelled to absorb selling pressure that would typically spill over into stocks, commodities, and currencies if those markets were open.
While a recovery was observed, CoinDesk states this stability is somewhat mechanical due to thin weekend liquidity and numerous leveraged positions being liquidated during the previous drop from the 70,000 USD mark. Analysts predict that when markets reopen next week, if stocks, oil, and bonds fall sharply, Bitcoin could face a new wave of risk-off selling from investors.
If Bitcoin reaches 60,000 USD, its value would have evaporated by nearly 53% from its peak in early 10/2025. The cryptocurrency has already lost almost 20% of its market value in 2/2026 alone.
Past escalations in Middle Eastern tensions (in 2020 and 4/2025) typically followed a pattern where Bitcoin would drop sharply due to the initial shock, then recover as traditional markets absorbed the news and the situation stabilized. However, the current situation presents unique challenges for predicting a swift resolution.
This time, the "controlled" scenario is difficult to predict, leading analysts to believe the downside risk for the cryptocurrency is quite clear. Should the conflict spread, oil prices could surge across the Atlantic, resulting in global risk aversion and a deeper decline for Bitcoin. Although often seen as "digital gold", this token has historically traded more like a risk asset than a safe haven.
"The 60,000 USD mark, which held firm during the 5/2 drop, now stands as the next line of defense, and this time it will be tested under much harsher conditions than a typical leveraged liquidation event", Shaurya Malwa commented.
_Tieu Gu (according to CoinDesk)_
