After three weeks of downward pressure, which saw it adjust from the 1,920-point range to 1,740 points, Vietnam's stock market halted its decline from 10/2-14/2, just before the Tet holiday. The VN-Index subsequently rose 3,91% to 1,824 points. SHS Securities observed healthy capital rotation across sectors, with gains seen in: real estate, securities, electricity, seaports, retail, and banking.

Market trading volume decreased 31,5% compared to the previous week. SHS Securities attributed this to investors' pre-Tet holiday sentiment. However, foreign investors resumed net buying, acquiring over 3,100 billion VND, ending a four-week streak of net selling.

Experts forecast a likely increase in the stock market after the Tet holiday. Nguyen Anh Khoa, Director of Analysis at Agribank Securities Joint Stock Company (Agriseco), noted that the market is expected to perform positively, supported by historical data. He stated that over the past 10 years, the VN-Index has shown a 90% probability of increasing post-Tet, with an 80% chance of an upward trend in the subsequent month.

Sharing this view, SSI Securities also considers the post-Tet period an attractive opportunity for investors in the coming months, based on the aforementioned historical data.

Beyond historical factors, Nguyen Anh Khoa highlighted that the stock market is also benefiting from the positive business results of the Q4/2025 financial reporting season, which concluded at the end of January. He noted that the profit growth of listed companies increased 30% compared to the previous year, significantly higher than the 22% recorded in 2024. "I believe company profits will continue to improve this year", Mr. Khoa stated.

The positive growth from the 2025 financial reporting season is also considered a market driver for the post-Tet period by SSI. The company's data shows that listed companies' Q4 revenue last year increased 26,5%. Concurrently, after-tax profit attributable to parent company shareholders improved 44,7%, marking the highest level since Q2/2021.

SHS Securities believes the stock market will continue to ascend, supported by a robust macroeconomic foundation. The company noted that 2026 marks the beginning of a new phase, with the Government targeting an average GDP growth of 10% or more annually over the next 5 years, aiming for a per capita income of approximately 8,500 USD by 2030. The Vietnamese stock market development strategy for the same period targets a stock market capitalization reaching 120% of GDP and an upgrade to an emerging market.

From a technical perspective, Tien Phong Securities (TPS) assesses that the pre-Tet recovery, following an isosceles triangle pattern, could develop into a new uptrend, targeting the 1,980-2,000 point range. The preceding correction also pushed momentum indicators into oversold territory, helping the market rebalance and creating room for new capital inflow, thereby reinforcing a healthier upward outlook.

Trading at Yuanta Securities floor, District 1, February 2022. *Photo: Quynh Tran*

Nevertheless, BIDV Securities (BSC) also suggested that in the week after the holiday, the VN-Index might retest the 1,725-point support level. Investors should consider gradually increasing their allocation to fundamental stocks during dips for short-term trading activities.

Phu Hung Securities believes the index may continue to fluctuate around the 1,800-1,830 point area for further consolidation. In a positive scenario, if buying demand improves, the VN-Index could aim for higher resistance, fluctuating around the 1,850-point region. Conversely, the immediate support level is 1,780 points, and a retreat below this could bring back correctional pressure.

PHS advises investors to consider holding positions, maintaining an average allocation. The market is still retesting its correction phase, with no clear trend confirmation yet. Most stocks are showing balanced movements, tending towards further price consolidation. New buying should only be considered when liquidity and market breadth improve broadly.

Trong Hieu