In a recent report, SGI Capital, the management company of The Ballad Fund, assessed that following the psychological "shock" in April, the direct impact of US retaliatory tariffs on the stock market has been quite limited. This is due to the low percentage of listed companies exporting goods to the US. Furthermore, these companies themselves are not pessimistic about Vietnam's competitive and export prospects.

"We believe the market has overcome the shock and fear of US tariffs and is now focusing on the next focal points in the second half of the year, such as the prospect of an upgrade and the spread and acceleration of growth," the fund management company stated.

According to SGI Capital, the early trade agreement reached with the US has helped Vietnamese exporters, both domestic and foreign-invested, proactively adjust their business plans. This, in turn, helps the business and investment cycle to resume operation. This is still considered a positive signal, although many details need to be negotiated, such as the origin ratio and specific tax rates by industry. In fact, registered FDI capital in the first half of the year continued to reach a record 21.52 billion USD, and disbursement increased 8.1% compared to the same period last year, estimated at 11.72 billion USD.

The company believes that the increased tariffs (about 10-15% compared to before) will affect businesses with fewer competitive advantages. However, in the long term, this will be a great motivation for businesses to restructure the value chain of industries in depth and diversify markets.

"If the tax rates applied to other countries in the near future are not significantly lower, the direct impact of tariffs on Vietnam's economic growth will not be too great and will be neutralized by domestic growth support policies that the government is actively promoting," SGI Capital stated.

Following the news that Vietnam and the US reached an early agreement on retaliatory tariffs, the stock market declined only on July 3rd, with a decrease of just under 3 points. In the last 4 sessions, the VN-Index has continuously increased, with the first 3 sessions of this week maintaining double-digit growth. After accumulating nearly 50 points, the stock market is now above 1,430 points, the highest since mid-April 2022.

Liquidity has also improved significantly, with three consecutive sessions reaching over one billion USD. Foreign investors have also had 5 consecutive net buying sessions with a value of over one trillion dong.

SGI Capital notes that foreign capital has returned to Vietnam "very strongly" in the early sessions of July, somewhat in line with net buying in other ASEAN countries. According to them, the fear of high tariffs on Vietnamese exports to the US, the last barrier for foreign capital flows, has been removed. Attractive valuations with the prospect of being upgraded by FTSE are becoming increasingly clear, along with high growth rates, making Vietnam particularly attractive to foreign capital after a record net selling of 8 billion USD over the past 4 years.

In addition, after the hot increases in real estate, gold, and cryptocurrency, stocks are the only remaining major asset class that is still "cheap" and below the 2022 peak. Meanwhile, many businesses have exceeded their 2022 revenue and profit peaks, with prospects for continued strong growth and cash dividend payout rates far exceeding real estate rental yields, comparable to deposit channels.

The fund management company assesses that the market has recovered reasonably in relation to the tariffs agreed upon by the US and Vietnam. In the short term, stocks will face profit-taking pressure when the increase becomes too hot under the impact of foreign capital flows. However, experts predict that valuations are still reasonable, along with many short, medium, and long-term drivers that will help the market maintain its upward trend and have the opportunity to rise further when officially upgraded later this year or early 2026.

After the VN-Index surpassed 1,400 points, Saigon - Hanoi Securities (SHS) believes that market sentiment has become more optimistic. Commenting at the end of the July 9th session, the analysis team said that the general index had exceeded their expectations and continued to expand, aiming for the price range around 1,450 points, corresponding to the highest level since July 2021. The market is still in a growth trend and is looking for opportunities in stocks that have not increased much and have accumulated well.

As for Kien Thiet Securities (CSI), they likened the stock market to "tireless" as the VN-Index increased sharply in 3 consecutive sessions. The analysis team said that a marubozu candlestick (strong candlestick) has appeared, signaling a continuing uptrend. The increase in points and liquidity are in sync and support the market's momentum without any noticeable obstacles that could affect the trend.

"The price increase on July 9th was beyond the expectations of most investors and is likely to continue in the coming sessions with a strengthened positive trend," CSI stated.

Investors are monitoring the market at the headquarters of a securities company in Ho Chi Minh City. Photo: An Khuong

Investors are monitoring the market at the headquarters of a securities company in Ho Chi Minh City. Photo: An Khuong

However, this analysis team still notes that at present, if investors want to buy new, they will face the risk of adjustment as the VN-Index has increased significantly from the bottom of 1,074 points to date. Therefore, CSI continues to maintain the view of selling, realizing profits, and lowering the proportion more strongly when the market enters the price range of 1,424-1,436 points. Experts suggest that investors can increase the cash proportion in their portfolio to up to 80% during times of volatility.

Similarly, SHS believes that the current price range is not cheap but is geared towards short-term trading and risk control. At the same time, the VN30-Index is approaching the highest price in 2021-2022, which are all historical peaks. Investors should monitor selling pressure at high prices, consider partially realizing profits if any, or consider risk-hedging positions in the derivatives market at the historical peak of the VN30.

The analysis team maintains the advice they have given throughout the past period: "Investors should maintain a reasonable proportion, focusing on stocks with good fundamentals, leading in strategic industries, and outperforming the growth of the economy".

Tat Dat