During a seminar on the afternoon of 13/3 hosted by the Ho Chi Minh City People's Committee (UBND TP HCM), Pham Binh An, Deputy Director of the Ho Chi Minh City Development Research Institute (HIDS), stated that the city's open economy makes it highly dependent on global geopolitical and economic developments.
TP HCM is targeting two-digit growth by 2026, around 10-11%, which requires the Gross Regional Domestic Product (GRDP) for the first half of the year to reach at least 10,3%. Based on this target and the evolving Middle East conflict, HIDS has projected three scenarios for first-quarter growth, ranging from a low of above 7% to a high of above 10%.
If the conflict escalates and becomes prolonged, Q1 GRDP is estimated to be between 7,08-7,98%. Should the conflict be short-lived, or in the most optimistic scenario, end quickly, growth could reach 8,08 - 9,04% and 9,19 - 10,28% respectively.
TP HCM GRDP growth scenarios (Unit: %)
| Baseline | Escalating and prolonged conflict | 7,08 – 7,98 | 12,62 – 13,52 |
| Transition | Short-lived conflict | 8,08 – 9,04 | 11,59 – 12,49 |
| Target | Rapid de-escalation of conflict | 9,19 – 10,28 | 10,41 – 11,31 |
For TP HCM to achieve its annual two-digit growth target, Q2 GRDP must increase by at least 10% and up to 13% if the city's economy in the first three months is significantly impacted by the Middle East conflict.
The city's economy shows positive signs. In the first two months, TP HCM's industrial production index (IIP) increased by 14,6%. Total retail sales of goods and consumer service revenue rose by over 13%. Export turnover reached an estimated 14,72 billion USD, an increase of 10,58% compared to the same period in 2025.
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Pham Binh An, Deputy Director of the Ho Chi Minh City Development Research Institute (HIDS), at the seminar on 13/3. Photo: VPUB |
Pham Binh An, Deputy Director of the Ho Chi Minh City Development Research Institute (HIDS), at the seminar on 13/3. Photo: VPUB
Pham Binh An noted the economy's positive health. Building on this momentum, HIDS proposed six groups of solutions to boost growth, prioritizing public investment disbursement from Q1, focusing on key projects, transport infrastructure, and logistics. Simultaneously, the city needs to resolve procedural, land, and site clearance issues.
Other solutions include: promoting production and exports by leveraging temporary 15% tariffs to the US and diversifying markets. Domestically, consumer demand and services will be stimulated through shopping events and festivals. The city will also attract high-quality foreign direct investment (FDI) and private investment, and develop the digital economy and innovation.
HIDS also urged the TP HCM administration to implement measures to stabilize fuel supply. These include: limiting crude oil exports, activating strategic reserves, finding alternative sources, monitoring prices to prevent shortages, and encouraging energy conservation among residents.
During a meeting with the TP HCM Department of Industry and Trade on the morning of 13/3, Nguyen Cong Vinh, Vice Chairman of the UBND TP HCM, requested the agency to swiftly develop scenarios and implement response plans to ensure energy security amidst unstable global supply pressures.
Vien Thong
