On 10/8/2025, former US President Donald Trump posted on Truth Social, "China is running low on soybeans. Our great farmers produce the best soybeans. I hope China will quickly quadruple their soybean orders." Trump suggested this would also help China reduce its trade deficit with the US.
Under an agreement reached in May, the US and China temporarily reduced import tariffs until 12/8. However, the Trump administration signaled a possible extension.
China currently buys about 60% of global soybean exports, mainly from Brazil and the US. Last year, it imported nearly 105 million tons of soybeans, with almost one-fourth coming from the US and the rest from Brazil. Quadrupling US imports would require China to purchase nearly all its soybeans from the US.
"It is unlikely China will do that," said Johnny Xiang, founder of AgRadar Consulting. It's unclear whether increased soybean purchases are a condition for extending the tariff reductions.
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Soybean harvest in Roachdale, Indiana (USA). Photo: Reuters |
Soybean harvest in Roachdale, Indiana (USA). Photo: Reuters
In recent years, China has reduced its reliance on US soybeans, shifting to South American suppliers. Under the Phase One trade deal signed during Trump's first term, China agreed to increase purchases of US agricultural products, including soybeans. However, Beijing later fell short of these targets.
This year, US-China trade tensions have flared up again. Beijing has not yet purchased any US soybeans for the fourth quarter, raising concerns as the US post-harvest export season approaches.
"Beijing has sent many signals that it's ready to bypass US soybeans this year. They've even trial-purchased soybean meal from Argentina," said Even Rogers Pay, an agricultural analyst at Trivium China. Reuters previously reported that Chinese feed producers bought three cargoes of soybean meal from Argentina, seeking cheaper supplies.
The US soybean industry has been searching for alternative buyers, but no market matches China's size. Last year, China imported 22.13 million tons of soybeans from the US and 74.65 million tons from Brazil.
Ha Thu (via Reuters)
