At the Price Management Steering Committee meeting on 5/8, the Ministry of Finance reported that market prices have generally fluctuated predictably since the beginning of the year. Prices rose in the first quarter, peaking during the Tet holiday period, then fell in March as usual.
In the second quarter, the CPI saw slight increases of 0.07-0.16% in April and May. June experienced a higher increase of 0.48% compared to the previous month, driven by rising prices of construction materials (bricks, sand, and stone) and petrol, mirroring global fuel market fluctuations.
The estimated 3.2-3.3% year-on-year increase in CPI for the first 7 months aligns with the government's push for maximum economic growth. "Vietnam's inflation is being controlled within the 4.5-5% target set by the National Assembly and the government, contributing to macroeconomic stability," the Ministry assessed.
The Ministry also forecasts potential inflationary pressures towards the end of the year. These include the prices of raw materials, certain salaries, food, beverages, clothing, and increasingly severe climate change. Conversely, factors that could alleviate price pressure include abundant domestic food supplies, free tuition for students, a 5-20% reduction in textbook prices, and tax cuts.
International organizations project Vietnam's average inflation for 2025 to be around 2.9-4.2%. Assuming a consistent monthly CPI increase for the remaining months, the Ministry of Finance estimates a remaining margin of 1.19-1.58% per month to achieve the 4.5-5% inflation target.
Concluding the meeting, Deputy Prime Minister Ho Duc Phoc emphasized that ineffective inflation management could negatively impact economic growth. Therefore, policymakers must strengthen price management to promote rapid and sustainable growth, preventing shortages and price spikes.
He urged ministries, sectors, and localities to monitor essential goods prices, particularly for petrol, electricity, rice, and meat, and to have appropriate management solutions ready. The Ministry of Construction, Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development, and Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment were tasked with collaborating with provinces to manage the real estate market effectively and in line with people's living standards.
Going forward, the Deputy Prime Minister directed ministries, sectors, and localities to strengthen supervision of price declaration and listing practices, while strictly penalizing unreasonable price increases that destabilize the market.
Phuong Dung
