This assessment comes from the Private Economic Development Research Board (Board IV) in its 2025 Business Confidence Report. The results are based on a survey of 1,531 businesses conducted in June by Board IV in collaboration with VnExpress.

Compared to last year's survey, the economic situation is viewed less favorably by the business community, both overall and within individual sectors. The number of businesses rating the macroeconomic situation as "positive, very positive" stands at 15.9%, slightly down from 16.1% in the same period last year. Meanwhile, the group viewing the economy with less optimism increased to 63.7%, from 60% in the same period last year.

"This suggests that business confidence has improved after Covid, but the level of optimism has slightly decreased compared to the same period last year," the report stated. This result reflects that businesses have not yet fully recovered and remain vulnerable to external factors, such as US tariff policies.

However, according to Board IV, business confidence has not declined significantly thanks to domestic reforms, including the spirit of the "Four Pillars Resolution" on private sector development, science and technology, administrative procedure reform, and international integration.

These findings align with the statistical data on the business situation over the past 6 months. According to the Statistics Department (Ministry of Finance), nearly 152,700 businesses registered for new establishment or resumed operations in the first half of the year, a 26.5% increase compared to the same period last year. Conversely, over 80,800 businesses temporarily suspended operations (up 13.3%), 34,000 businesses awaited dissolution (up 18.3%), and over 12,300 companies completed dissolution procedures (up 23.3%).

Across different sectors, the assessment of the economic situation by businesses did not vary significantly, with over 60% in various fields choosing "negative, very negative." Businesses in the agriculture, forestry, and fishery sectors expressed more pessimism, with 26.2% rating the situation as "very negative," while construction businesses were the most optimistic, thanks to the impact of increased public investment.

"Groups less affected by US tariff policies tend to have a more positive assessment of Vietnam's economic situation. This indicates that tariff risks are one of the factors related to the decline in business confidence in this survey," the report stated.

Looking ahead to the next 12 months, 56.8% anticipate a positive economic shift, while only 18.5% believe the situation will remain challenging. Compared with domestic and global economic forecasts, these results closely reflect the current reality. In its updated report on 29/7, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) raised its global growth forecast for this year to 3%, up 0.2 percentage points from its April forecast. The growth rate for next year was also raised to 3.1%, from 3% previously. This is attributed to global purchasing power increasing more than expected before the US tariff deadline of 1/8. US import taxes applied to other countries are also lower than announced in April.

Domestically, the Government aims for 8.3-8.5% GDP growth this year, setting the stage for double-digit growth in the 2026-2030 period.

The 2025 Business Confidence Report also indicated that the percentage of businesses planning to expand has increased from 1.7% to 2.4%. However, the labor market still faces many difficulties. Approximately 56.5% of businesses said they might reduce their workforce by over 5%.

Regarding revenue, nearly 62% of businesses reported that their revenue could decrease by over 5% this year. Among them, nearly 14% anticipate a 50% drop in revenue.

Orders, the risk of criminalization of economic transactions, administrative procedures, cash flow, access to loans, etc., remain challenges for businesses. Unlike previous surveys, difficulties related to administrative procedures, especially due to local mergers, have become the biggest challenge businesses face.

In reality, while the government has actively streamlined administrative procedures, the actual impact on businesses has been limited, requiring authorities at all levels to continue improving implementation efficiency and removing this bottleneck.

In terms of business sectors, the private sector still faces more difficulties than state-owned enterprises and foreign direct investment (FDI), especially in implementing administrative procedures and understanding policies. Meanwhile, state-owned enterprises face major challenges related to the risk of criminalization of economic transactions, while the FDI sector faces challenges related to US countervailing duty policies.

Business recommendations still focus on access to capital and markets, improving the investment environment, and adapting to US tariffs.

To improve the investment and business environment, businesses suggest that the government continue simplifying administrative procedures, ensure that the transfer process between agencies does not interrupt public services, and establish appropriate roadmaps when issuing new policies. The State needs to direct and monitor implementation at the local level, abandon the mindset of prohibiting what cannot be done, and end harassment, especially in the fields of taxation, customs, environment, and fire prevention and fighting.

Regarding support for market access, businesses recommend strict control of the origin and quality of goods, especially for cheap imports from China; tightening online business management to ensure fairness with traditional retail. At the same time, they also hope that authorities will strengthen the fight against counterfeit goods, stimulate consumption, and protect the domestic market.

Regarding access to capital, businesses desire low-interest unsecured loan mechanisms, prioritizing small businesses with a good tax payment history, without requiring collateral. They also propose that banks remove bad debts from the CIC system after businesses have settled their debts to have the opportunity to re-borrow.

Finally, to adapt to US countervailing duty policies, businesses suggest that Vietnam needs to diversify export markets, develop supporting industries, localize input materials, effectively utilize free trade agreements (FTAs), establish legal consulting centers and trade defense offices, build early warning systems, and implement reasonable "technical barriers" to protect domestic production.

The government also needs to have preferential policies for businesses investing in and innovating technology, reduce taxes and fees, and support input costs to reduce pressure on prices, enhancing the competitiveness of domestic goods. Policies on tax exemptions and reductions for investors producing materials to replace Chinese sources and increasing the domestic content ratio for products were also mentioned by businesses.

Phuong Dung