A survey conducted by the General Statistics Office (Ministry of Finance) reveals that 37.3% of processing and manufacturing businesses expect an improvement in business conditions in Quarter III compared to Quarter II, while 43.5% anticipate stability. About 19.2% of businesses foresee difficulties.

Foreign direct investment (FDI) enterprises are the most optimistic, with 81% expecting stable or improved conditions. This percentage is 79.8% for state-owned enterprises and 80.7% for non-state enterprises.

Dong Tam's brick factory in Long An, 3/2025. Photo: Thanh Nguyen

Dong Tam's brick factory in Long An, 3/2025. Photo: Thanh Nguyen

In Ho Chi Minh City, a similar survey by the city's Statistics Office shows 41.8% of businesses predict stable production and business activities in Quarter III, and 33.7% foresee improvement.

By business type, 85.7% of state-owned enterprises expect a more positive outlook for this quarter compared to Quarter II. This figure is 74.5% for FDI enterprises and 68.9% for non-state enterprises.

Evaluating the production and business results of Quarter II, nearly 36% of surveyed businesses nationwide reported better conditions compared to the first 3 months of the year. Meanwhile, 43% found conditions stable, and 21.3% still faced difficulties. In Ho Chi Minh City, nearly 75% reported stable or improved conditions.

According to the General Statistics Office, industrial production continued to grow positively in the previous quarter. The industrial production index (IIP) is estimated to have increased by 10.3% compared to the same period in 2024, with processing and manufacturing increasing by 12.3%. For the first 6 months, the IIP is estimated to have increased by 9.2%, the highest level since 2020.

In the first half of this year, the added value of the entire industry reached 8.07%, the second highest in the 2020-2025 period. This figure is only lower than the 8.89% increase in the same period in 2022, contributing 2.64 percentage points to the GDP growth rate. Accordingly, GDP growth in the first 6 months reached 7.52%, the highest for the same period in the 2011-2025 period.

The Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for Vietnam's manufacturing sector in June, recorded by S&P Global Market Intelligence (USA), was 48.9 points. This is the third consecutive month the PMI has been below 50, indicating a contraction.

Andrew Harker, Economics Director at S&P Global Market Intelligence, said the main reason is the weakening of international demand for Vietnamese manufactured goods. However, the positive point is that production output continued to increase for the second consecutive month, and business confidence has been strengthened.

"Business confidence has recovered to a certain extent in recent months, but the positive sentiment is mainly based on hopes for a more stable picture in the coming time," he said.

Vien Thong