The Vietnamese stock market experienced another enthusiastic trading week with 4 rising sessions and 1 falling session, accumulating nearly 40 points. The Ho Chi Minh City Stock Exchange's representative index closed the week at 1,497 points, just 30 points, or 2%, away from its historic peak. The most significant event last week was the VN-Index returning to the 1,500-point mark after more than 3 years. This was short-lived, as profit-taking pressure at the high price range immediately appeared, causing the index to narrow its gains.
Many analyst groups agree that the VN-Index is on an upward trend, but technical adjustments this week are possible. In a recent market update report, Phu Hung Securities outlined 3 important milestones for the current period. Specifically, the VN-Index will fluctuate significantly to consolidate the 1,500-point level. The higher resistance target is the old peak of 1,530 points, while conversely, the short-term support level is at 1,450 points.
The Saigon - Hanoi Securities (SHS) analysis team is also confident about the potential to reach the 1,500-1,537 point range. In a less optimistic scenario, the team suggests the support level is 1,480 points, approximately 20 points down from the current level.
Not long ago, SHS predicted the VN30 index would struggle to surpass its 2021 historic peak. In reality, the large-cap representative index has surpassed its own peak and is driving the VN-Index higher.
"The current action should be 'trend following' (holding onto the growth trend), while evaluating investment opportunities in sectors considered the main growth drivers for the economy, aiming for GDP growth of over 8% in the last 6 months of the year," the SHS analysis team suggests. They add that investment targets should be stocks with good fundamentals, leading companies in strategic industries, and those with the potential for outstanding growth.
Most securities companies are confident about the market's performance this week. However, they still advise investors to avoid excessive enthusiasm. According to Yuanta Securities Vietnam, the market sentiment is entering "overly optimistic" territory, so disbursement opportunities are gradually shrinking, while short-term risks are tending to increase.
"We note that short-term investors could stop buying and consider reducing a portion of their stock holdings to preserve profits and reduce risk," the analysis team recommends.
For investors holding for 1-5 months, Yuanta believes the medium-term trend remains upward with low risk. Therefore, these investors can maintain a high proportion of stocks and continue to take advantage of adjustments to increase their stock holdings.
Similarly, Phu Hung Securities suggests investors should pay attention to the fluctuation range in the coming sessions. If liquidity continues to improve but the index cannot break far from the 1,500-point threshold, the market will face a potential reversal risk.
VCBS also sees a reasonable trading strategy at this time as continuing to observe the market, limiting chasing or increasing the proportion of "hot" stocks in recent sessions.
For investors looking to make new disbursements, the analyst groups suggest taking advantage of adjustments and fluctuations during the session rather than chasing prices. Priority sectors could include real estate, securities, banking, technology, and public investment. These are considered sensitive to the "money pumping" trend as well as the low-interest rate environment.
Phuong Dong
