Last week, the VN-Index failed to reclaim the 1,700-point mark and shifted to sideways trading, declining slightly for 4 consecutive sessions. The index lost a total of 9 points, closing below 1,660.

Large-cap stocks lacked the momentum to propel the market. Vingroup (VIC) primarily maintained the market's pace, rising over 11%. Total market trading value on several days remained below 30,000 billion VND, significantly down from the average of nearly 50,000 billion VND a month ago. Meanwhile, foreign investors increased selling pressure, with net selling value exceeding 2,800 billion VND in the most recent session.

"Last week's selling pressure concentrated on bank stocks – a key sector – putting significant pressure on the market. The daily declines weren't substantial, but the plunging liquidity indicates investor caution and hesitation," analysts at ACB Securities (ACBS) noted.

According to most securities firms, the market is in a necessary consolidation phase after a prolonged rally and breaking numerous records. Over the past 5 months, the index has risen 37% and hasn't experienced a decline greater than 4.5% since the tariff-related slump in early April. Many investors who have taken profits are not ready to return, given the lack of new information regarding market upgrades and Quarter III earnings. Therefore, the current tug-of-war, continuous reversals, and closing prices near the reference point may persist this week.

Experts at Vietcombank Securities (VCBS) believe the Ho Chi Minh City Stock Exchange's benchmark index is currently seeking momentum and rebalancing supply and demand, so it will likely trade sideways within a 30-point range.

Sharing this view, analysts at Yuanta Vietnam Securities predict the VN-Index will recover in the first session of the week but remain sideways in subsequent sessions if it doesn't surpass the nearest resistance level of 1,686 points. Based on technical analysis, ASEAN Securities offers a similar forecast, with a resistance range between 1,670 and 1,680 points, 10-20 points higher than the current level.

Investors monitor electronic boards at a stock exchange on Pasteur Street (TP HCM). *Photo: Quynh Tran*

With a more cautious perspective, some securities firms don't rule out a sharp correction due to a combination of factors. According to SSI Securities (SSI), a strong correction could occur in the second half of September due to increased exchange rate pressure, a less exciting Quarter III earnings season, and profit-taking after the strong rally.

ACBS emphasizes that if selling pressure persists, the VN-Index could fall to 1,600 points. This is a crucial psychological level for establishing a short-term trend. If strong and stable bottom-fishing demand emerges at this price level, the market could resume its upward trend.

However, regarding the medium-term outlook (2-6 months), most analysts believe the primary trend remains upward. The current sideways trading and low liquidity are characteristic of a consolidation phase, laying the foundation for a new rally. According to Tien Phong Securities, the prerequisite for a new uptrend is that the index doesn't fall below 1,600 points in the coming sessions.

During this period, many securities firms suggest investors hold onto stocks that are trading sideways and not facing strong selling pressure. For investors with a large cash position, new investments are recommended with caution, avoiding chasing rallies during strong upward sessions.

"Investors can maintain a high proportion of stocks in their portfolios and should not increase this proportion yet. If liquidity continues to decline, they should wait to buy at lower levels during corrections," advises an expert at Yuanta Vietnam.

Phuong Dong