Last week, many investors were surprised to witness the VN-Index chart consistently in the green. The market accumulated nearly 71 points, marking its 4th consecutive week of gains and returning to its highest level since mid-4/2022. The VN30-Index even set a new record. These figures surpassed the forecasts of many analysts. The total market capitalization, as calculated by Saigon - Hanoi Securities (SHS), reached approximately 325 billion USD, equivalent to 68% of 2024's GDP.
Beyond the rising index, market liquidity also increased significantly, with trading volume on the HoSE up 41% compared to the previous week, averaging over 1.2 billion shares per session. This figure is even higher than the average during the peak of 2022. Foreign investors continued their net buying, with a value of nearly 7 trillion VND on the HoSE last week.
However, in the final sessions of the week, market consensus began to fragment. "Vin family" stocks and leading steel, technology, securities, and banking stocks were well-supported by net foreign buying. Meanwhile, mid-cap, penny stocks, and some large-cap stocks in the banking, oil and gas, and utilities sectors saw corrections after previous gains.
This morning, the market began to experience volatility. Just after the first 30 minutes of trading, the general index was pulled nearly 10 points below the reference point due to selling pressure in the securities and real estate sectors. The VN30-Index also dipped into the red.
However, the market quickly recovered, thanks to the support of the "Vin family" duo, VIC and VHM, along with some banking stocks. The VN-Index closed before the lunch break above 1,465 points, up more than 7 points compared to the end of last week.
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Investors monitor the market at a securities company's headquarters in Ho Chi Minh City. Photo: An Khuong |
Investors monitor the market at a securities company's headquarters in Ho Chi Minh City. Photo: An Khuong
This development was within the predictions of many securities firms. In this morning's report, VPBank Securities (VPBankS) suggested the market is in a period of strong growth with positive cash flow, foreign investor support, and strong leading stocks. However, while the general index is rising, most stocks are not following suit, indicating a clear divergence.
Technically, VPBankS analysts believe a technical pullback (a short-term period against the trend) is likely "at any time," especially if the relative strength index (RSI) doesn't cool down in the next few sessions.
"The priority at this stage is risk management. Investors should not chase rising prices but prioritize restructuring their portfolios and choosing stocks that haven't seen significant increases," VPBankS recommended.
SHS analysts believe that in the short term, the VN-Index will continue towards the 1,480-point range. Meanwhile, the VN30, having surpassed its historical high from 11/2021, may face pressure to retest this level in the coming period. SHS believes the positive impact is partly due to VHM and VIC, as shares of Vinhomes and Vingroup have risen sharply, heading towards their 2021 historical peaks, around 90,000 VND for VHM and 120,000-130,000 VND for VIC.
"The market is still in a growth trend, with short-term opportunities in stocks with active net foreign buying," SHS experts stated.
They recommend investors prioritize holding onto the trend, monitor selling pressure at high prices, and consider partially realizing profits if any. Overall, SHS suggests maintaining a reasonable portfolio allocation, focusing on fundamentally strong stocks, leaders in strategic sectors, and outperforming growth sectors of the economy.
From a technical analysis perspective, Vietcombank Securities (VCBS) observes on the hourly chart that the moving average convergence divergence (MACD) indicator is still rising. However, the RSI has stalled and is moving sideways, suggesting that the upward momentum has also slowed. Besides, the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) indicator is moving sideways and slowing its upward momentum compared to the previous period, signaling continued divergence between sectors.
"Investors should continue to hold well-performing stocks in their portfolios and consider exploratory investments in stocks with unique stories or positive QII earnings expectations," VCBS analysts recommended.
As one of the few securities firms to offer a cautious view, Vietcap Securities believes that in the short term, the VN-Index is approaching the next resistance level at 1,465-1,470 points, with an overbought condition at a high level. Therefore, although the leading VN30 index has not yet shown signs of reversing, market caution is gradually increasing.
"We do not rule out the possibility that the VN-Index will correct downwards in the coming sessions," their analysts predicted, adding that the 5-day moving average (MA5) support level is currently at 1,435 points.
Tat Dat
