Thien, an office worker in An Giang, sold almost his entire stock portfolio earlier this month when the VN-Index reached 1,400 points. He made a 13% profit, but still regrets it because the stocks in his old portfolio have continued to rise. He said he is torn between the fear of missing out and the fear of a market reversal similar to what happened three years ago.

"I check the stock prices no less than ten times a day. I've been eyeing a few stocks but haven't dared to buy yet," Thien said.

Cases like Thien's are not uncommon. In stock forums and groups, many investors are wondering what to do after taking profits early and holding a large amount of cash while the VN-Index is approaching its historical peak.

Answering this question, Nguyen Minh Hanh, Director of the Analysis Center at Saigon - Hanoi Securities JSC (SHS), said the market is in an uptrend. However, this trend doesn't mean a continuous upward movement, but rather will include intermittent corrections. Hanh predicts that in the next two to three weeks, a correction may occur, creating opportunities to buy at attractive prices and with lower risk than at present.

If this pullback isn't clear, he suggests investors consider a more flexible strategy of investing in stages. Investors can buy about 50% of their available funds first, prioritizing stocks with good fundamentals, high liquidity, and that haven't increased too much. He advises limiting the use of high leverage due to the potential correction risk, while keeping the remaining cash ready to invest when opportunities arise.

"With this strategy, if the market continues to rise, you still benefit from the portfolio you have already invested in. If there is a correction, you still have room to buy more at lower prices, avoiding buying at the peak," he said.

Investors monitor the electronic board at a securities company in TP HCM. Photo: Quynh Tran

Investors monitor the electronic board at a securities company in TP HCM. Photo: Quynh Tran

Vu Minh Duc, Deputy Director of the Research and Analysis Department at Vietcap Securities JSC, believes that with the positive macroeconomic outlook, the stock market surpassing its historical peak is just a matter of time. However, when approaching the peak area of 1,525-1,530 points, profit-taking pressure can cause market fluctuations, even a deep correction. This will be most evident in leading stocks that have outperformed the VN-Index.

According to Duc, a stock's price fluctuation cycle usually begins with an accumulation phase, reflected in sideways movement or slow growth over a long period. After that, the stock explodes in both price and liquidity, breaking out of the accumulation base. This is the stage most favored by short-term investors. When it rises to a strong resistance level, a correction occurs, and depending on market sentiment, the decline can range from 10% to 30% compared to the previous accumulation.

"Investors should avoid chasing the market and wait patiently for corrections to invest at lower prices. They can buy tentatively for a medium and long-term perspective based on the following criteria: stocks with good fundamentals, that haven't risen in tandem with the VN-Index, and are accumulating around the 200-day moving average (MA200)," Duc said.

To determine the right time to buy if they have "missed the boat," experts suggest investors observe technical indicators, especially the MA (which reflects price movements over a certain period).

During an uptrend, the market may undergo a technical correction, a minor one to the MA20, an average one to the MA50, or a deeper one breaking through the MA100. These are important support zones for investors to re-enter the market because the probability of recovery afterward is relatively high. However, when the market reverses its trend or enters a long-term peak formation phase, these lines gradually lose their support significance.

According to Hanh, investors relying on technical analysis can make money very quickly and significantly when the market goes up. But when the market reverses, many people can easily "catch falling knives" at the wrong time and lose money if they don't have enough in-depth knowledge. Therefore, he recommends that in addition to monitoring technical indicators, investors should also incorporate information about cash flow, market sentiment, and the trading activities of foreign and proprietary trading groups.

Distinguishing between a healthy correction within an uptrend and a long-term downtrend, according to experts, is also a key factor in avoiding mistimed investments, meaning buying right when the market is about to enter a weakening phase. If technical support zones and cash flow recover quickly when a correction occurs, that is a good sign. Conversely, if prices continue to slide and liquidity dries up, investors should be cautious because the market is shifting to a long-term downtrend.

Phuong Dong