After round 32, Arsenal is 6 points ahead of Man City, but has also played one more match. The two teams will face each other at the Etihad Stadium in round 33 on 19/4. Consequently, Man City could take the top spot if they defeat Arsenal and then win their rescheduled match against Crystal Palace (time yet to be determined).

However, according to Opta statistics, Arsenal still has a clear path to the title with an 87% probability. Meanwhile, Man City's chances are only 13%. The firm predicts both teams will earn 12 more points from their remaining matches. The Gunners are projected to finish the season with 82 points, while Man City is expected to reach only 76 points.

Declan Rice looks distraught as Arsenal lost 1-2 to Bournemouth in round 32 of the Premier League at Emirates Stadium, London, United Kingdom on 11/4. Photo: Reuters

These figures are Opta's predictions, derived from thousands of simulations of the remaining season results to calculate probabilities. Team capabilities are assessed using the Opta power index, where Arsenal is still rated as the best in the world, while Man City ranks third, even behind Bayern Munich.

In their six remaining matches, Arsenal will face Man City, Newcastle, Fulham, West Ham, Burnley, and Crystal Palace, with an average opponent ranking of 12,8. Man City's seven remaining opponents are Arsenal, Burnley, Everton, Brentford, Bournemouth, Aston Villa, and Crystal Palace, holding an average ranking of 9. Therefore, Pep Guardiola's squad faces a significantly tougher schedule than Mikel Arteta's team, which is why the statistics firm remains confident in Arsenal.

Mikel Arteta's team also demonstrates superior form, having secured 12 points in their last 5 rounds, compared to Man City's 11 points. Their defeated opponents during this period include Tottenham, Chelsea, Brighton, and Everton.

A factor not favoring Arsenal is Arteta's poor performance in April, with an efficiency rate only half of Guardiola's during the same period. The question remains whether this trend will persist this season.

Opta's simulations also indicate that Man Utd has a 96% chance of qualifying for next season's Champions League. Aston Villa also has a 94% chance, while Liverpool's stands at 69%. Chelsea's Champions League probability has dropped to 19% after their recent 0-3 loss to Man City at Stamford Bridge.

In the relegation battle, Tottenham faces the third-highest risk for the first time, with a 46% chance of being relegated. According to Opta's predictions, Wolverhampton and Burnley have a 100% probability of departing the Premier League. The probabilities for the teams ranked above Tottenham are West Ham at 36%, Nottingham Forest at 10%, and Leeds at 8%.

Hoang An (according to Opta)