Betfair estimates Kane has a 19.6% chance of winning the 2026 Ballon d'Or. PSG forward Ousmane Dembele, last year's winner, ranks second with 14.2%. Arsenal midfielder Declan Rice ranks third with 10.6%.

This assessment is based entirely on club-level performance. It could change after the 2026 World Cup, the world's biggest national team tournament. France Football magazine will organize the Ballon d'Or voting from August and announce the results on 26/10.

Kane and Bayern won the German Cup after a 3-0 final victory over Stuttgart on 23/5. Photo: AFP

Kane had an outstanding season for Bayern, scoring 61 goals and providing seven assists in 51 matches. He won the Bundesliga, German Cup, German Super Cup, and European Golden Shoe, also reaching the Champions League semifinals. If he wins the World Cup with England, the captain is likely to become the new recipient of the Ballon d'Or.

Dembele did not have individual statistics as impressive as Kane's, scoring 20 goals and providing 11 assists in 40 matches. However, last year's Ballon d'Or winner made a significant impact in PSG's Champions League defense, scoring seven goals in victories against Chelsea, Liverpool, Bayern, and Arsenal. He also helped PSG successfully defend Ligue 1, and win the UEFA Super Cup, French Super Cup, and FIFA Intercontinental Cup. Like Kane, if he wins the World Cup with France, Dembele is likely to secure a second consecutive Ballon d'Or.

Rice became the third candidate by helping Arsenal end a 22-year Premier League drought and reach the Champions League final.

The next candidates include: Michael Olise (8% chance), Khvicha Kvaratskhelia and Lamine Yamal (7.1%), Vitinha (5.3%), Kylian Mbappe (4.2%), Desire Doue (2.5%), Erling Haaland (1.9%), Raphinha, Bruno Fernandes and Julian Alvarez (1.2%), Lionel Messi, Pedri, Vinicius, Bukayo Saka, Achraf Hakimi and Federico Valverde (1%), and Cristiano Ronaldo (0.8%).

The 2026 World Cup takes place from 11/6 to 19/7 in the US, Mexico, and Canada. 48 teams will participate, divided into 12 groups. The top two teams from each group and the eight best third-placed teams will advance to the round of 16, where knockout stages begin.

Spain and France are currently considered the two leading contenders with 5/1 odds. England ranks third with 7.5/1, followed by Brazil (9/1), Argentina, and Portugal (10/1).

Thanh Quy (according to Betfair)