A stumble against Bournemouth and Manchester City's convincing victory over Chelsea unexpectedly reignited the Premier League title race. The gap between Arsenal and Manchester City narrowed from 9 to 6 points, with Pep Guardiola's side still having a game in hand against Crystal Palace. However, data and statistics suggest that Mikel Arteta's team retains several advantages to finish first.

First, Manchester City needs to win all remaining matches this season to overtake Arsenal. However, this task is not as straightforward as many perceive. In the last two seasons, the longest winning streak for the Etihad Stadium side was only six matches, and for most of the time, they maintained a run of four wins. Compared to the nearly perfect "winning machine" image from two seasons ago, current Manchester City is still very strong but no longer absolutely consistent. Therefore, the assertion that they will win all remaining matches is more emotional than realistic.

Arsenal is still considered the stronger contender in the race against Manchester City. Reuters

Arsenal is still considered the stronger contender in the race against Manchester City. Reuters

Arsenal, of course, still controls its own destiny. The direct confrontation between the two teams at the Etihad Stadium in matchweek 33 could decide the outcome. However, unlike their usual cautious mindset, Arsenal approaches this match with a positive head-to-head record. They are unbeaten in their last five Premier League encounters against Manchester City, with two wins and three draws. This marks a significant improvement compared to their previous run of 12 consecutive defeats.

Beyond Manchester City, Arsenal under Arteta has also demonstrated resilience in major matches. Over the last three and a half seasons, when considering only clashes between "Big 6" teams, Arsenal has suffered the fewest losses and gained the most points. They typically drop points against lower-ranked opponents, rather than faltering against direct competitors. This gives fans reason to believe that the trip to the Etihad is an opportunity for the "Gunners" to maintain, or even extend, their lead.

Arsenal still dominates in matches against the Big 6.

Another factor favoring Arsenal is their fixture schedule. According to Opta's strength index, Arsenal's remaining opponents have a lower average difficulty level compared to Manchester City's. Specifically, the average index for Arsenal's opponents is 90,4, whereas Manchester City's is 92,0. Overall, Arsenal has the 4th easiest schedule for the rest of the season. If they avoid defeat against Manchester City, they can maintain their advantage until the end of the season, especially with three of their last five matches being played at home.

Arsenal's recent form is concerning, as they have won only one of their last five matches and were eliminated from both domestic cups. However, Arsenal's underlying performance metrics remain very positive. They continue to boast the best defense in the league. Since the start of 2026, Arsenal is the only Premier League team to concede an average of less than one expected goal (0,76 xG) per game. Even during their dip in form, they rarely allow opponents to create many clear-cut chances.

In attack, Arsenal still creates enough chances to win in most matches. They have won the xG battle in 11 of their last 13 league games. The loss to Bournemouth is a prime example. Although they only generated 0,19 xG from open play, Arsenal's total xG still reached 2,32, largely from set-piece situations. The ability to capitalize on dead-ball situations has become a crucial weapon for Arteta's side.

Another source of confidence for Arsenal comes from prediction models. According to Opta's supercomputer, after 10.000 simulations, Arsenal wins the title in 87% of scenarios. This figure is nearly seven times higher than Manchester City's. Bookmakers also maintain Arsenal as the number one contender. These predictions are based on squad strength, form, fixture schedule, and probability of results.

Arsenal and Manchester City's title probability throughout the 2025-2026 season, according to Opta.

Of course, the warnings for Arsenal are real. The defeat to Bournemouth and the loss to Manchester City in the League Cup final show signs of psychological vulnerability under pressure. April also hasn't historically been a period where Arteta's teams perform well. But unlike previous seasons, Arsenal now has a sufficiently solid foundation to overcome fluctuations.

The title race, therefore, remains open. Manchester City is currently in buoyant form, and with just one slip-up from their opponent, they could capitalize immediately. However, Arsenal has not lost its advantage. When looking at the data rather than emotions, the London club remains the strongest contender for the crown.

The rest of the season will test their mettle. And if they can maintain defensive solidity, along with effectiveness from set-piece situations, Arsenal has every reason to believe in their first league title in 22 years.

Hoang An (according to the Guardian)