A quick check of the Flightradar24 app reveals a stark change: what was once the world's busiest aviation crossroads – a dense network connecting Europe, Asia, and Africa – is now a vast emptiness, a "hole" in the sky.

The escalating conflict in Iran has triggered a ripple effect across the Middle East, leading to the closure or abandonment of vast swathes of airspace. As the region is central to long-haul flight networks, the disruption is extending far beyond its borders.

Flight tracking website Flightradar24 reveals a significant "hole" in Middle Eastern airspace, a region previously known as a bustling aviation crossroads linking Asia and Europe.

For decades, air traffic between Europe and Asia routinely traversed the Middle East. The region hosts powerful global aviation hubs, including Dubai International Airport, Hamad International Airport, and Zayed International Airport, as well as major carriers like Emirates, Qatar Airways, and Etihad Airways. These airlines built their business models on facilitating East-West connections.

Tony Stanton, consulting director at Strategic Air in Australia, describes Middle Eastern airspace as a "high-capacity bridge" linking East and West.

"When that bridge collapses or closes, traffic doesn't vanish; it reroutes to two primary corridors, either north or south. Consequently, these narrow corridors become severely congested," Stanton explained.

The inevitable outcomes are extended flight delays, heightened disruption, and increased instability. Airlines cannot simply fly anywhere; they require permits to traverse each nation's airspace and are only authorized to enter open corridors coordinated by air traffic control.

The present "hole in the sky" evokes memories of prior aviation disruptions: the paralysis during the Covid-19 pandemic, the 2010 closure of Atlantic airspace following Iceland's volcanic eruption, and the persistent rerouting necessitated by the Russia-Ukraine conflict.

Japan Airlines flight JL43 from Tokyo to London serves as a prime example. Prior to 2022, the aircraft flew west over Russian territory. Over the past three years, it has been forced to fly east across the Pacific Ocean, Alaska, and Canada, adding 2,4 hours to its flight time and consuming an extra 21.000 liters of fuel per trip, an approximate 20% increase.

Passengers observe a cancellation board for Middle East-bound flights at Terminal 4, Heathrow Airport, London on 2/3. The turmoil in the Middle East is triggering a global ripple effect. *Photo: Reuters*

Airspace closures disrupt not only the Middle East but also global travel. Flights are compelled to divert, resulting in longer journey times, increased fuel consumption, and various crew-related issues, including reassignments and being stranded.

Rising uncertainty impacts aircraft insurance, ticket prices, and operational sustainability. Ultimately, higher ticket prices directly affect travelers.

Rerouted flights invariably incur higher costs. While long-haul aircraft carry reserve fuel for unforeseen route alterations, extended flight durations can necessitate additional crew or unscheduled refueling stops.

"That increases costs," said Brendan Sobie, an aviation analyst and consultant in Singapore.

Airlines' rerouting expenses are partially covered by "war risk" insurance. However, insurance does not fully mitigate financial losses. If insurers perceive heightened risks, they will seek to increase premiums. Airline stocks have already experienced slight declines due to economic and political instability.

While travelers might not immediately face a sudden surge in airfare, a prolonged Middle East conflict will likely compel airlines to pass operational costs onto ticket prices to recoup expenses.

Currently, numerous airline crews and aircraft are stranded in the affected region, leading to global travel delays and cancellations this week.

"You can be anywhere in the world and still be affected by what's happening in the Middle East. An aircraft scheduled for Singapore or Brisbane might be stuck in London," aviation expert Stanton noted. Sobie added that prolonged disruption will result in a longer recovery period.

An Emirates aircraft at John F. Kennedy Airport, New York. Experts forecast that extended disruption will prolong the recovery period for the flight network. *Photo: Bloomberg*

The most common question among travelers is, "When will flight operations return to normal?" Sobie believes recovery time hinges on the extent of airspace reopening. Full reopening would facilitate a quicker recovery than partial reopening, and predicting the exact timeline for a return to normalcy is "very difficult."

Stanton, however, reassures travelers not to be overly concerned about safety outside the immediate conflict zone. Major airlines base their schedules not merely on Flightradar24 traffic, but on stringent risk assessments informed by intelligence.

These airlines maintain dedicated security teams, flight operations departments, and coordination units. They adhere to government recommendations. "They may even receive intelligence that we do not have," he stated, "and they make very careful decisions about whether to operate flights."

Stanton expresses confidence in major airlines, stating he feels secure flying with British Airways, Qantas, or Emirates when their flights are operational. "I believe in the system and the risk assessments they perform behind the scenes to operate their fleet," he affirmed.

Tourism Economics estimated on 3/3 that the Middle East conflict could result in an 11-27% decline in international visitors to the region this year, equating to a reduction of 23-38 million arrivals. This contrasts with a previous forecast in 12/2025, which projected a 12% growth for the Middle East tourism industry in 2026.

Anh Minh (According to CNN)