The World Travel & Tourism Council (WTTC) estimates that the Middle East conflict is the primary cause of nearly 600 million USD in daily losses for the region's tourism industry. Before the conflict, international visitor spending in the Middle East this year was projected to exceed 205 billion USD. The escalating political situation in the Middle East has reshaped the international tourism landscape.

Major aviation hubs in the region, such as Abu Dhabi, Dubai, Doha, and Bahrain, typically handle around 526,000 passengers daily. However, this number has sharply declined due to numerous airspace closures. Dubai International Airport in the UAE, which connects 291 global destinations, served nearly 5 million seats in February. During the first week of the conflict, scheduled flights decreased by 85%. As of 11/3, over 21,000 scheduled flights to and from the region had been canceled.

A yacht passes by smoke rising from Jebel Ali Port after an alleged Iranian attack on Dubai on 1/3. Photo: AFP

A yacht passes by smoke rising from Jebel Ali Port after an alleged Iranian attack on Dubai on 1/3. Photo: AFP

Before the conflict, despite many passengers only transiting, the Middle East accounted for 14% of global international transit traffic, serving as a vital bridge between three continents: Asia, Africa, and Europe. The region also represented about 5% of the world's total international visitors.

Currently, many airlines operate limited flights, significantly fewer than their regular schedules. Flightradar24 analysis shows that on 24/2, Emirates, Etihad Airways, and Qatar Airways operated 527, 325, and 563 flights respectively. By 10/3, these numbers had dropped to just 309, 56, and 66 flights. Data from 10/3 indicates Qatar Airways operated the most flights since the conflict began, while flydubai had restored nearly 50% of its capacity. Other airlines continue to operate fewer flights than usual.

Despite the unstable situation, with many international visitors still stranded, many express confidence in Middle Eastern governments to ensure everyone's safety. YouTuber and beauty editor Lauren O'Connell, who moved from the US to Dubai in 2009, stated she has "never, not once felt unsafe," because the UAE "takes security very seriously."

Key opinion leaders (KOLs) living in the Middle East these days report trying to "stay calm and continue daily life." Tourists mention adhering to government recommendations, spending most of their time indoors or in hotels, staying away from windows, and waiting to see "if things get worse." If the situation deteriorates, international visitors who have chosen the UAE as their second home have prepared plans to return.

The decline in perceived safety in some Gulf countries and initial tour cancellations could partly redirect tourism demand toward European destinations, according to a report from Mabrian, a Spanish tourism consulting company.

An analysis based on data concerning tourist sentiment and demand behavior in major international markets like the US, UK, Germany, and Italy indicates declining confidence in some Gulf destinations. This could create opportunities for other tourism markets.

Destinations such as Bahrain, Oman, and Qatar recorded the sharpest decreases in their Security Perception Index (SPI), a measure of a destination's stability as assessed by tourists. In Bahrain, this index fell by 81 points to 9,6/100. Oman saw a drop of 56,7 points (to 24,8), while Qatar's decreased by 54,9 points (to 18,4).

Some other Gulf destinations demonstrated better resilience. The United Arab Emirates experienced a 48,3-point decrease to 51,9, and Saudi Arabia dropped 13,6 points to 85,3.

The report warns that even moderate declines can affect international tourism demand, as security remains a crucial criterion for tourists when choosing a destination.

Spain could be one of the beneficiaries if international visitor flows change. With its extensive airline network and diverse tourism products, from urban and cultural tourism to beach resorts, this destination can readily attract redirected visitors. According to El Pais, many travel companies are receiving an increasing number of cancellation requests for destinations near the conflict zone, such as Egypt, Jordan, and Dubai.

However, Mabrian suggests it is too early to confirm whether the shift in tourist movement will become a long-term change. Current data primarily reflects changes in tourist perception and intent, which will only become clearer through bookings if the conflict persists.

Anh Minh (According to CNN, Euro News)