If a presidential election were held today, 20.3% of Ukrainians would vote for Volodymyr Zelensky, according to a survey conducted by Kyiv-based firm Info Sapiens and published on 9/12/2024. The findings, based on responses from 1,000 individuals, position Zelensky as the leading candidate, despite a recent decline in his approval ratings.

The survey, carried out between 13-28/11/2024, followed a corruption scandal in the energy sector that implicated several allies and high-ranking officials close to president Zelensky. This controversy led to a drop in his support, which had been 24.3% in October 2024, before the case became public.

Despite the setback, Zelensky is still considered the most viable candidate. Valerii Zaluzhnyi, the former commander-in-chief and current Ukraine ambassador to the UK, ranks second with 19.1% support, a 3 percentage point increase from the October 2024 survey. Kyrylo Budanov, the military intelligence chief, secured third place with 5.1% support.

A significant portion of respondents, approximately 23.6%, either remained undecided or declined to disclose their preferred candidate.

Ukraine president Volodymyr Zelensky speaks from the capital Kyiv on 21/11/2024. Photo: AP

The survey also explored a hypothetical parliamentary election scenario. About 21.8% of voters indicated they would choose a party led by Zaluzhnyi, even though he has not yet established a political party. In contrast, the Servant of the People party, founded by Zelensky, garnered only 11.5% support.

While both Zaluzhnyi and Budanov are viewed as potential presidential candidates, neither has formally declared an intention to enter the political arena.

President Zelensky's approval ratings have fluctuated significantly since he took office. After his election in 2019, his trust level reached 80%. This figure dropped to 37% by February 2022, just before the conflict with Russia escalated. Following the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine war, his support surged to 90%.

A mid-2024 survey by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology (KIIS) revealed that 60% of Ukrainians trusted Zelensky, while 35% expressed distrust. However, only 25% believed he should continue in office once the conflict concludes.

According to the Ukraine constitution, elections can only be held after martial law is terminated. Martial law has been in effect since the beginning of the 2022 conflict and has been extended multiple times. In September 2024, Zelensky stated he was open to the possibility of not seeking re-election after the war.

US president Donald Trump, in an interview aired on 9/12/2024 with Politico, commented that it was time for Ukraine to hold elections, suggesting that Zelensky "could still win".

President Zelensky later told Italy's La Repubblica newspaper that he was always ready to organize elections. "It does not stop there. Frankly, I also want the US to help me organize it. Within 60 to 90 days, Ukraine will be ready for elections. I already have the determination and preparation for this event", he stated.

The Ukraine president announced he had instructed members of his party to prepare a draft law that would permit elections during the ongoing conflict, provided the US and Europe offer security guarantees. Zelensky aims to develop a separate document outlining security guarantees between Ukraine, the US, and Europe, in parallel with the peace plan with Russia currently under discussion by the involved parties.

By Thanh Danh (Sources: Kyiv Independent, Kyiv Post, Washington Post)