The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) announced on 8/3 that it could maintain its current high operational intensity for at least 6 months. It also stated that it had targeted over 200 locations linked to US and Israeli forces across the Middle East.

This information comes as Tehran's ballistic missile and drone (UAV) attacks show no signs of stopping. This is despite the US military previously claiming that the number of Iranian ballistic missile strikes had decreased by nearly 90% since the conflict began.

Experts believe this reflects a change in Iran's tactics, based on lessons learned from previous military engagements.

Ten lua Iran tap kich Haifa va Beersheba, Israel ngay 2-3/3. Video: Al Jazeera

During the June 2025 conflict, Iran launched several waves of ballistic and cruise missiles combined with UAVs, with each barrage numbering hundreds of weapons. US, Israeli, and Arab air defenses intercepted most of them. Only a few struck, causing limited damage to the enemy. Many Iranian missile launchers were subsequently destroyed in Israeli strikes.

"They do not want to repeat what happened in the previous conflict. Iran has changed its missile doctrine, shifting from large-scale, media-grabbing barrages to relentless attacks designed to erode enemy air defenses," wrote Charles Clover for the Financial Times.

Iran's military also fired short-range missiles and UAVs at US bases and critical infrastructure in several Arab nations. On both fronts, Iran began with inexpensive weapons, aiming to degrade enemy air defense capabilities and disrupt daily life in many areas.

Anh ve tinh tran dia ten lua THAAD hung don cua Iran

Israeli officials report that each Iranian attack now uses fewer missiles and UAVs than in the previous conflict, but occurs with much greater regularity. This appears to be a deliberate war of attrition by Iran, referred to internally by Israel as the "drizzle" tactic.

"Who is to say Iran will play by Israel's rules. We do not know how far Iran will push things, but this conflict will likely not end in just a few days," a former Israeli security official said.

While Israeli and Gulf countries' air defenses intercepted most of Iran's attacks, some UAVs and missiles still penetrated. Two attacks on the Israeli cities of Tel Aviv and Beit Shemesh last week killed a total of 10 people.

Radar AN/FPS-132 co gia hon mot ty USD o Qatar bi hu hai sau don tap kich cua Iran. Anh: Planet Labs

"Political calculations may soon lead Iran to escalate attacks on Gulf nations. Tehran believes that if it creates enough chaos, it can turn US and Israeli partners against the campaign targeting Iran," stated Behnam Ben Taleblu, an Iran expert at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD) think tank in the US.

Iran appears to be prioritizing the use of older missiles first, reserving more advanced types for later stages of the campaign.

"Interceptor missiles for THAAD, Arrow, and David’s Sling systems are extremely expensive and take years to accumulate. Iran primarily deploys older liquid-fueled missiles to attack Israel and Gulf countries to deplete their interceptor stockpiles, saving newer solid-fueled missiles for when enemy air defenses are weakened," noted former British army major Robert Campbell.

However, Campbell also suggested that the success of this tactic would depend on Iran's ability to maintain its missile launchers, especially since these were priority targets for the US and Israel from the outset of the conflict.

Lynette Nusbacher, a former British cabinet intelligence adviser, emphasized that Iran has learned it cannot avoid losses in conflict. "Iran has anticipated the risk of losing leaders and uninterrupted command capabilities, so they allow regimental commanders or even lower ranks to order fire on predetermined targets," she said.

According to Nusbacher, Iranian units also face pressure to use missiles before their launchers are destroyed. "Iranian commanders know they need to fire them or they will lose them," she stated.

Phuong tien nghi la be phong ten lua Iran bi pha huy trong video cong bo ngay 3/3. Video: CENTCOM

Most modern ballistic and cruise missiles combine multiple guidance methods to counter the risk of satellite navigation signal jamming. Advanced types feature electro-optical guidance systems to ensure high accuracy when striking targets.

In Iran's arsenal, only some missiles are equipped with optical guidance systems, such as the Haj Qasem and Qassem Bassir, unveiled in 2020 and 2025, respectively. Iran may have launched a Haj Qasem missile at Israel's Haifa oil refinery in June 2025, while the Qassem Bassir has not yet seen combat.

The IRGC announced on 5/3 that it launched Khorramshahr-4 missiles at Tel Aviv and Ben Gurion airport, emphasizing that they penetrated 7 layers of Israeli defense. This marks one of the few times Khorramshahr-4 missiles have been used since the conflict began.

The Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), based in the US, assesses that the Khorramshahr-4 belongs to a class of medium-range ballistic missiles capable of carrying multiple warheads and decoys, optimized to penetrate modern air defense systems. It also boasts high maneuverability and a rapid launch time, reducing the risk of detection before striking.

"Iran calculates that this is a prolonged conflict and is evaluating how to retaliate. Their increasingly sophisticated tactics became evident at the end of the 2025 conflict. Iran launched fewer missiles than in the early days, but hit more targets," said Danny Citrinowicz, an expert at the Institute for National Security Studies in Tel Aviv.

Vet lua tren bau troi sau khi Israel danh chan ten lua Iran o Ashkelon ngay 28/2. Anh: Reuters

Iran's continuous attacks also have a psychological impact on Israel, making many citizens feel overwhelmed and believe they must always remain near shelters, according to Citrinowicz.

Karim Sadjadpour, an expert at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace in the US, suggests Iran might choose to absorb losses, preserve its forces, and save some retaliatory measures for later, including launching more attacks after the US draws down its forces in the region.

"This could lead to significant losses for the US and its allies. Maintaining a massive military force on high alert for an extended period in the Middle East is not easy, even for the US," Sadjadpour warned.

Nguyen Tien (According to Financial Times, AFP, AP)