The conflict involving the US, Israel, and Iran has continued for nearly one week, with no signs of abatement. Leaders from both the US and Israel have hinted that their campaign against Iran could last for several weeks.

Interviews with Israeli citizens indicate a desire to confront their long-standing adversary, which they accuse of being "determined to destroy them". With the exception of the far left, most politicians have expressed support for the government's war efforts.

"The current situation is not like the 12-day war in 6/2025. Back then, the prevailing sentiment was panic and fear that Iran could annihilate Israel. Now, the atmosphere is one of enthusiasm and confidence. Even those who previously opposed war merely advise Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu not to prolong the campaign, as if Israel alone could decide that," said Shir Hever, an Israeli political economist.

Israel's air defense system fires to intercept missiles launched from Iran on 1/3. Photo: AP

Since launching attacks on Iran on 28/2, Israel has endured continuous missile and drone strikes. Attack sirens have sounded frequently, schools have closed, and tens of thousands of reservists have been urgently mobilized.

Cities like Haifa and Tel Aviv have been repeatedly targeted, overwhelming emergency services. Israeli citizens have spent days in bomb shelters.

A prolonged war would raise significant questions for Israel. The most challenging and urgent issue is how long Israel can sustain its current operational intensity against an adversary with Iran's military capabilities, and whether Israel's defensive arsenal would be depleted before Iran's.

Defense analyst Hamze Attar suggests that this depends on support from allies such as the US and Europe.

"During the 12-day war, Iran launched approximately 500 missiles, requiring Israel to use a similar number for interception. This figure likely exceeded Israel's self-response capacity. Without US support, Israel might have lost control of its airspace," Attar stated.

Israel operates a three-layered air defense system: the Iron Dome for short-range missiles, David's Sling for medium-range missiles and cruise missiles, and finally, Arrow 2 and Arrow 3 for intercepting ballistic missiles.

Key components of Israel's multi-layered air defense network. Graphic: Reuters

Israel does not disclose its interceptor missile inventory, but these reserves diminished after the 12-day war. This suggests that Tel Aviv would find it challenging to maintain a high interception rate if the conflict were to extend. In such a scenario, Israel would be compelled to ration its missiles, prioritizing the protection of military and political targets, which could lead to increased civilian casualties.

Attar noted that the threat also stems from Iran's extensive missile and launcher arsenal.

Over many decades, Iran has developed a range of missiles capable of striking targets far beyond its borders. Iran's longest-range ballistic missile can hit targets approximately 1,900 km away.

In 2019, the US Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) assessed that Iran possessed "the largest and most diverse ballistic missile arsenal in the Middle East".

Range of Iranian ballistic missiles. Graphic: FDD

The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) reported that prior to the 6/2025 war, Iran had accelerated ballistic missile production, aiming to increase its reserves from about 3,000 to 8,000 missiles within two years. They stated that Iran recently manufactured tens of missiles each month and estimated it currently possesses approximately 2,500 ballistic missiles.

During the first three days of the conflict, Iran reportedly launched over 200 ballistic missiles into Israel.

Beyond its arsenal, experts believe Israel is also under significant economic pressure. The past two years of conflict have severely impacted the country's economy. The enormous cost of munitions, coupled with the prolonged mobilization of hundreds of thousands of reservists, has strained the national budget.

Israel's defense spending in 2024 for conflicts in Lebanon and Gaza reportedly reached USD 31 billion, resulting in its highest budget deficit in years. Preliminary figures for 2025 show war costs surging to USD 55 billion.

This pressure led all three major global credit rating agencies to downgrade Israel's rating in 2024. This index reflects a government's ability and commitment to fully and timely meet its debt obligations.

"Israel is experiencing a debt crisis, an energy crisis, a transportation crisis, and a healthcare services crisis," Hever explained.

According to Professor Ayal Kimhi of the Shoresh Institute for Socioeconomic Research, most Israelis may not yet feel the immediate financial shock from the war with Iran, but the profound economic repercussions will gradually emerge.

"Direct military costs, from reservist salaries to interceptor missiles and ammunition, will amount to billions of US dollars. The cost of partially halting economic activity could be even greater," he stated.

Debris after an attack on the Gush Dan area in Israel on 1/3. Photo: AFP

Ori Goldberg, a former university professor and independent political analyst in Israel, believes that despite domestic support, "Israel almost certainly cannot sustain a prolonged offensive on its own".

President Donald Trump and Prime Minister Netanyahu found common ground in attacking Iran, according to Goldberg. However, this alignment is short-term because Trump is not keen on a prolonged war and would not hesitate to engage with a more cooperative new Iranian leadership.

"If Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei were replaced by a more pragmatic individual, Israel and the US would likely soon go their separate ways," Goldberg remarked.

Thanh Tam (According to Al Jazeera, Times of Israel, JPost)