In a report released on 9/2, the US-based Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies stated that its air force needs to acquire at least 300 F-47 stealth fighters and 200 B-21 strategic bombers to counter China, should a large-scale conflict erupt between the two nations.

The US Air Force previously announced plans to purchase at least 185 F-47 fighters and 100 B-21 bombers, a figure significantly lower than the Mitchell Institute's recommendation.

Heather Penney, research director at the Mitchell Institute, warned that past US conflicts, as well as the Ukraine conflict, demonstrate that military forces risk being drawn into prolonged attrition warfare without air superiority and the ability to strike enemy military bases and sanctuaries.

A US B-21 bomber conducts a test flight at Edwards Air Force Base in 9/2025. Photo: US Department of Defense.

According to Penney, the US could face a similar situation without enhancing its long-range strike capabilities. "China is building capabilities and deploying forces to turn the entire Western Pacific into its safe zone. History shows that an adversary achieving such a safe zone will secure victory", she said.

Recent US Air Force strikes have been relatively effective, exemplified by Operation Night Hammer, conducted in 6/2025, when its forces entered Iranian airspace to attack nuclear facilities and withdrew without sustaining damage.

However, Penney noted that the US had to deploy all its existing B-2 bombers for the operation, with some participating in strike missions and others acting as decoys. "If Iran had shot down any B-2s, the US Air Force would lack the resources to replace them or conduct similar missions the following day, should follow-up strikes be needed", she said.

China would pose a much greater threat to the US due to its superior air defense network compared to Iran. Without sufficient aircraft reserves, the US Air Force would have to operate outside the range of China's air defense network, limiting high-risk missions to avoid losing irreplaceable aircraft.

"Such a cautious strategy would not be enough for the US to win", Penney stated.

The Mitchell Institute suggests the US Air Force needs to take steps to maintain its combat air capabilities in the short term, while awaiting delivery of sufficient F-47 and B-21 aircraft. "This means B-1B and B-2 bombers should not be retired until at least 100 B-21 bombers have been delivered", the US expert added.

An artist's rendering of the Boeing F-47 fighter. Graphic: USAF.

Penney also urged the US Air Force to aim for acquiring at least 75 F-35A stealth fighters and 24 F-15EX multirole combat aircraft annually to halt the decades-long decline in its force size.

"The fighter crisis must be reversed, and F-35s and F-15EXs acquired at maximum speed, with no more 'divest to invest' practices", the expert stated, referring to the strategy of retiring older aircraft to fund new model development. "They need to recapitalize the fighter fleet at a minimum one-to-one ratio, and add collaborative combat drones."

Pham Giang (According to Defense News)