As of last week, Chinese state-owned and private refineries have purchased 13 shipments of Russian crude oil for October delivery and at least two for November, according to fuel industry data.

Muyu Xu, a crude oil analyst at data firm Kpler, said these 15 shipments, each consisting of 700,000 to 1 million barrels, will originate from ports in the Arctic and Black Sea. These ports are typically used for shipments to India due to the favorable geographical distance.

The Russian oil tanker Pegas at a seaport in Turkey in 2022. Photo: Reuters

The Russian oil tanker Pegas at a seaport in Turkey in 2022. Photo: Reuters

China and India are currently the largest buyers of Russian oil, after the product was shunned by the West due to the war in Ukraine. However, at the end of July, India's state-owned oil companies stopped purchasing Russian oil in the last week of the month. This was due to decreased discounts and warnings from former US President Donald Trump.

Last month, Trump threatened to impose secondary import taxes on countries still importing Russian oil to increase pressure on Moscow to end the war in Ukraine. Earlier this month, he imposed an additional 25% tax on Indian imports, bringing the total tax to 50%.

With demand from India decreasing, Xu said China has seized the opportunity. Russian oil is currently at least 3 USD cheaper than its Middle Eastern equivalent. "I think this is a very good opportunity for China, as India is still under significant pressure from Trump," he said.

Late last week, after meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin, Trump told Fox News that he would not immediately impose retaliatory taxes on Beijing for buying Russian oil. Instead, he said he might do so "in the next two to three weeks".

"We must take advantage of this opportunity while prices are low. I think in the next two to three weeks, many Chinese refineries will consider buying more," Xu predicted.

Last year, India imported 53 billion USD worth of gasoline and crude oil from Russia, according to United Nations (UN) data. Before cutting back purchases, Kpler data showed that Russian oil accounted for 37% of India's total oil imports.

China has also increased its imports of Russian oil since the war in Ukraine began, which now accounts for 13.5% of its oil imports, according to Vortexa. Last year, China imported 62.6 billion USD worth of Russian oil and gas, according to the UN.

Beijing's increased purchases are unlikely to fully offset the drop in demand from New Delhi. India buys about 1.7 million barrels of oil per day from Russia, compared to China's 1.2 million.

However, on 20/8, Indian Oil and Bharat Petroleum resumed purchasing Russian oil for September and October delivery due to increased discounts.

Ha Thu (according to Reuters, CNN)