The State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) recently announced its projected system-wide credit growth for 2026 at approximately 15%. This figure is notably lower than both the 16% target and the 19,1% actual growth recorded in 2025. The central bank indicated that this growth orientation might be adjusted to align with the actual economic situation, control inflation, stabilize the macroeconomy, and support overall economic growth.
In 2025, the SBV had initially targeted 16% credit growth. However, the actual figure surged to 19,1% by year-end, with total outstanding loans reaching 18.58 quadrillion dong. This rapid expansion in credit significantly outpaced capital mobilization rates, creating substantial pressure on system liquidity, particularly during the period leading up to Tet (Lunar New Year).
Speaking at an end-2025 press conference, Pham Chi Quang, Director of the Monetary Policy Department at the SBV, highlighted that last year's credit growth was the highest in many years. "The State Bank of Vietnam has repeatedly reported this matter to various authorities. Currently, Vietnam's credit-to-GDP ratio stands at 146%, the highest among lower-middle-income countries," Quang stated.
Analysts at Mirae Asset Vietnam Securities Company anticipate a deceleration in credit growth this year, despite a GDP growth target of over 10%. They attribute this slowdown primarily to three factors: first, the historically high growth rate observed in the previous year. Second, recent statements from the SBV suggest that the credit growth limit allocation mechanism will be phased out, signaling a cautious policy stance. The third factor, according to Mirae Asset, is a concern regarding inefficient capital utilization, which influences monetary policy formulation. This necessitates an improvement in credit quality to foster sustainable growth pillars, rather than relying solely on monetary easing.
"Credit growth is expected to continue at a moderate pace, with the focus shifting from asset investment to business production, aligning with sustainable growth criteria," the Mirae Asset analysis group noted.
For the current year, the SBV will continue to implement its credit growth limit allocation mechanism for individual banks. This allocation will be based on their 2024 ranking scores, multiplied by a common coefficient. The regulatory body emphasized that banks must tightly control credit growth in risky sectors, particularly real estate. The objective is to redirect credit flows towards business production, priority sectors, and other key drivers of economic growth.
The credit growth limit mechanism has been maintained by the SBV for the past decade. It serves as a crucial tool for controlling lending quality and achieving broader macroeconomic objectives such as managing interest rates, money supply, and inflation. However, this tool has faced criticism for creating a "request-grant" mechanism. In some instances, this has prevented borrowers from accessing credit when banks have exhausted their allocated limits.
In August 2025, the Prime Minister instructed the SBV to promptly develop a roadmap and pilot the removal of specific credit growth targets. The directive also called for the SBV to establish clear standards and criteria for banks to adhere to safety ratios and credit quality indicators. The central bank will then be responsible for supervision and post-inspection to prevent systemic risks.
Phuong Dong
