Over the first eight months of the year, the gold price index increased 40.25%. According to the GSO, this surge is mainly due to the global gold price holding steady at 3,418 USD per ounce, supported by expectations of the US Federal Reserve (Fed) cutting interest rates soon, a weakening USD, and increased demand from central banks and individuals in Asia.

Domestically, the increase is even more pronounced due to rising demand for gold amid limited supply. Gold prices have been rising continuously for the past two weeks, with each tael of gold increasing by about 10 million VND, equivalent to a nearly 8% increase. On the morning of 6/9, the price of gold bars increased by another 1 million VND, reaching a new record of over 135 million VND, maintaining a difference of 20 million VND compared to the global price.

Explaining this phenomenon at a meeting on 6/9, Deputy Governor of the State Bank of Vietnam Doan Thai Son said the soaring global price, coupled with expectations of gold breaking the 3,500 USD per ounce mark, has encouraged people to buy more. Another reason is the scarcity of supply, as the State Bank has temporarily stopped selling SJC gold to the market during the transition of the management mechanism.

People buying gold in Ho Chi Minh City. Photo: Quynh Tran

Domestic USD prices are moving against the global trend. The global USD-Index stood at 98.11 points at the end of August, down 0.14% compared to the previous month. However, in Vietnam, the USD price index in August increased 0.36% compared to July; 4.43% higher than the same period last year and 3.67% higher than the end of 2024. Over the first eight months, the domestic USD price index has increased 3.45%.

Amidst the fluctuations in gold and USD prices, the consumer price index (CPI) in August edged up 0.05% compared to the previous month. Compared to the end of 2024, the CPI increased 2.18% and is 3.24% higher than the same period last year. On average over the first eight months, the CPI increased 3.25%, while core inflation rose 3.19%.

According to the GSO, the recent slight increase in CPI is mainly due to rising house rents, restaurant services, and education costs as students return to school. In addition, electricity prices in August also increased by more than 1% due to prolonged hot weather.

The GSO assesses that inflationary pressure in the immediate future is not significant. However, according to economists, if the USD and gold prices continue to rise, this will be a warning sign of inflation risks in the future. Although not directly impacting CPI, high USD and gold prices can increase import costs, thereby indirectly affecting domestic prices and market sentiment.

At the government meeting on 6/9, Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh assessed the fluctuation of gold prices as "very noteworthy." He requested the State Bank, the Government Inspectorate, and relevant agencies to closely monitor and prevent hoarding, manipulation, and price gouging in this market.

Thi Ha