Vietnam's stock market is set to be officially upgraded by FTSE Russell from frontier to secondary emerging status on 21/9. Index-tracking funds are projected to disburse an initial tranche of around 240 million USD by the end of this week. However, foreign capital has already entered the market in the early sessions of the week.
Foreign investors have injected capital for two consecutive sessions, resulting in a total net buying value of 1,500 billion dong and a volume exceeding 55 million shares. Today, foreign net purchases surpassed 30 million shares, marking the highest level in the past 5 months.
Foreign capital has predominantly flowed into banking stocks. VPB, MBB, SHB, SSB, VCB, CTG, and BID were among the most actively purchased shares.
This influx of capital helped the Ho Chi Minh City (TP HCM) Stock Exchange's benchmark index break its sharp correction streak, turning green with a gain of nearly 23 points. The VN-Index closed at 1,811 points, and the VN30 surpassed 1,950 points. The TP HCM exchange saw widespread gains, with 222 codes increasing and only 86 declining.
According to analysts at Rong Viet Securities Company, the upgrade event's impact on the VN-Index score will be positive, though not substantially large. The effects will be more pronounced for individual stocks, which must absorb significant supply or demand relative to their liquidity.
Historical data from markets previously upgraded by FTSE Russell indicates that liquidity in the month the upgrade takes effect can be one to three times higher than the preceding 12-month average. Subsequently, capital flows typically experience a sharp decline.
"The VN-Index has risen by 10,3% over the past 11 months, while August liquidity was only 0,59 times the average of the preceding 12 months. Therefore, there is more room for trading volume to increase than for the index score to rise," Rong Viet's analysts noted.
Today's market liquidity reached approximately 16,700 billion dong, a decrease of nearly 3,000 billion dong from the beginning of the week. VIC was the only stock to record one trillion dong in matched orders, significantly outpacing other codes such as BSR, SHB, VPB, and VCB.
By sector, banking stocks exhibited the most positive performance, with common gains of 1,5%. SSB was the only stock in this group to hit its ceiling price, closing with no sellers.
Oil and gas stocks collectively reversed their trend, moving from declines to gains. Notably, BSR surged to its ceiling price of 30,450 dong, with over 2,4 million shares in outstanding buy orders.
Securities stocks also traded robustly. Leading codes such as VCI, SSI, and HCM all gained over 1% from their reference prices.
Analysts at MB Securities Company note that statistical data from the past 4 years indicates September is typically a period of less positive performance. This trend reflects investor sentiment and the information disclosure cycle. Consequently, investors should avoid chasing prices or opening new long positions, especially during a week marked by numerous significant events.
Phuong Dong
