These insights were shared by experts at the "Investment Outlook 2026: What Opportunities Will Lead the Vietnamese Market?" seminar, organized by DNSE Securities on the afternoon of 29/12. Assessing the stock market this year, Nguyen Thanh Trung, CEO of FinSuccess, described it as highly volatile. He noted that while the VN-Index increased by over 30%, excluding the rapid surge of the Vingroup cluster (VIC, VHM, VRE) and three major banks (Techcombank, VPBank, CTG), the rest of the market only grew by approximately 3-5%.

Concurring with this view, Nguyen Tuan Anh, Founder of FinPeace, stated that 2025 was one of the most challenging years for short-term traders. The market experienced continuous fluctuations due to major shocks, particularly in the early part of the year, which was impacted by tariff factors. This led to significant losses in many portfolios, even as the index later recovered strongly.

Experts participating in the seminar "Investment Outlook 2026: What Opportunities Will Lead the Vietnamese Market?". Photo: DNSE

Experts participating in the seminar "Investment Outlook 2026: What Opportunities Will Lead the Vietnamese Market?". Photo: DNSE

Given these fluctuations, speakers suggested that 2026 could mark a selective cycle for the market. Interest rates are no longer low, exchange rate pressure and capital costs are increasing, making capital flows less widespread than before. Two factors are expected to dominate the market next year: the 10% economic growth target and the anticipated stock market upgrade. Based on this, experts identified four key sectors likely to attract capital and drive investment portfolios.

Public Investment

According to Nguyen Thanh Trung, unlike consumer spending or private investment, which rely on business sentiment and decisions, public investment is a sector the Government can "act on immediately". The expert forecasts that the 2026-2030 period will likely be a cycle of accelerated disbursement for transport infrastructure, energy, and other key projects.

"Compared to 2025, public investment must not only be maintained but also accelerated to achieve high GDP growth targets. This will be the economy's primary leading capital flow," he remarked.

Direct beneficiaries include construction, building materials, transport infrastructure, oil and gas, and energy. Public investment capital will not only impact main contractors but also spread to numerous supporting industries, from logistics to raw material supply.

Nguyen Thanh Trung, CEO of FinSuccess. Photo: DNSE

Nguyen Thanh Trung, CEO of FinSuccess. Photo: DNSE

Banking

From a macroeconomic perspective, Ho Sy Hoa, Director of Research and Investment Consulting at DNSE, believes that despite short-term pressure on interest rates and net interest margin (NIM), banking remains an indispensable sector for the 2026-2030 growth cycle.

According to Ho Sy Hoa, credit must expand to achieve high GDP growth targets. He explained, "While Vietnam's credit-to-GDP ratio is already high, if strong growth is to be maintained, the banking system will remain the main capital channel for public investment, businesses, and consumption."

Regarding risks, the expert noted that the banking sector's NIM will continue to face pressure as deposit rates rise, while lending rates struggle to increase proportionally. However, he suggested that NIM could bottom out from the second half of 2026, as system liquidity improves and capital cost pressure gradually eases. "Banks may not see immediate breakthroughs early next year, but they are a group worth monitoring for the later period," he added.

Energy

Alongside public investment, energy is considered a foundational sector for medium and long-term growth. Demand for electricity, fuel, and new energy sources is projected to continue rising as Vietnam intensifies industrialization and infrastructure development.

Experts believe that large energy projects not only serve energy security objectives but are also essential for maintaining an attractive investment environment. In the context of increasingly fierce competition for international capital, energy is viewed as a crucial link supporting sustainable growth for many years to come.

Exports

Beyond policy-driven pillars, Nguyen Thanh Trung proposed a "contrarian" investment strategy for the export and industrial park sectors. He believes these areas are currently overlooked by the market, with stock prices returning to lows equivalent to the 4/2025 bottom due to tariff risk concerns.

"When most risks have already been priced in, even a positive signal from global trade could generate a significant recovery for this group," Nguyen Thanh Trung commented.

From another perspective, Nguyen Tuan Anh advised investors to anticipate the market upgrade, expected in 9/2026, by accumulating leading stocks with a history of regular cash dividend payments, such as those in the oil and gas or food sectors. He believes these groups are likely to enter the "radar" of foreign capital once the market is upgraded.

Overall, despite numerous macroeconomic challenges, speakers maintained a positive outlook for the main trend of the VN-Index in 2026. The market's primary drivers are identified around two major axes: economic growth and the story of the stock market upgrade.

According to Nguyen Thanh Trung, if Vietnam is officially upgraded to an emerging market in 9/2026, foreign capital from ETFs and active funds could reach 3-8 billion USD.

"The upgrade will help Vietnam transition from a frontier market to an investable market, thereby reducing net selling pressure from foreign investors compared to 2025," the FinSuccess CEO stated.

Driven by these factors, experts presented various scenarios for the VN-Index in 2026. Ho Sy Hoa offered the most optimistic scenario, suggesting the index could aim for the 1.950-2.040 point range, based on an assumed 17,5% increase in market-wide earnings. More cautiously, Nguyen Tuan Anh and Nguyen Thanh Trung forecast the VN-Index will surpass previous peaks, achieving a minimum growth of 8-15% in the base-case scenario.

From a strategic viewpoint, Nguyen Tuan Anh believes 2026 is a favorable year for investment, with market valuations still around a P/E of 14,5 times, a level considered attractive relative to profit growth prospects. However, speakers emphasized that superior returns will not come from merely tracking the index, but from carefully selected portfolios based on sectors and businesses with strong fundamentals.

Minh Dang