A recent Kitco survey indicates that most Wall Street experts predict gold prices will either continue to decline or trade sideways this week. Specifically, out of 13 analysts surveyed, only two believe gold is likely to rise this week. Conversely, the percentages predicting a decrease and a sideways trend are 31% and 54% respectively.
An online poll of 228 individual investors shows that 61% of participants anticipate positive gold prices. Meanwhile, 19% of investors are pessimistic, and 20% hold a neutral view.
David Morrison, senior market analyst at Trade Nation, expresses a short-term pessimistic outlook for gold. "The outlook for gold is quite uncertain," he states. Morrison notes that the MACD indicator on the daily chart appears to need a further decline to trigger new buying interest. Despite technology stocks leading a sell-off in the US stock market, there is still no indication that investors are turning to gold as an alternative safe-haven asset.
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Gold bars from a bank vault in Zurich, Switzerland. Photo: Reuters |
Gold bars from a bank vault in Zurich, Switzerland. Photo: Reuters
Alex Kuptsikevich, senior market analyst at FxPro, forecasts a drop in gold prices this week. He is monitoring the possibility of gold breaking below its 50-day moving average.
"Gold has held firm against pressure from a stronger US dollar and rising bond yields," Kuptsikevich says. However, he believes that the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in december has fallen to 32%, weakening gold's upward momentum.
Kuptsikevich also suggests that last month’s price decline ended gold's three-year bull cycle. Nevertheless, prices have held up well over the past few weeks, despite a stronger USD and progress in the Ukraine peace plan – factors that would typically cause gold to fall. Currently, buyers are keeping prices above the trend line (the 50-day moving average). "If it breaks below this level, the current trading trend could shift," the FxPro expert notes.
Kevin Grady, president of Phoenix Futures and Options, states that the market is awaiting guidance from the Federal Reserve (Fed). "I think a large part of the issue lies with interest rates," he says. Grady observes that investors are waiting to see what the Fed will do at its december meeting and are closely watching the minutes and previous statements.
Adrian Day, president of Adrian Day Asset Management, shares a similar view, suggesting gold may require more time before entering a sustainable uptrend, though the Fed's interest rate decision next month could alter the landscape. "I do not think prices will fall much from current levels; the fundamentals remain supportive, and sidelined capital will be ready to buy if prices correct," Day comments.
"Expect prices to rise," says Rich Checkan, president and Chief Operating Officer (COO) of Asset Strategies International, regarding gold prices this week. He analyzes that the fundamentals remain unchanged and central bank gold purchases are not diminishing. Checkan also believes the recent downward correction and accumulation for the precious metal was overdone.
Checkan adds that the US market will see light trading this week due to the Thanksgiving holiday. "Thin markets often amplify movements in either direction... and I believe investors will prefer to be in gold rather than on the sidelines," he concludes.
Trong Hieu
