On 11/9, the International Energy Agency (IEA) released its monthly oil market report, further lowering its supply and demand forecasts for this year. The agency highlights that the world is experiencing continuous energy shocks, and crude oil flows from Middle Eastern countries can only fully recover next year due to ongoing conflicts.

Oil inventories are currently playing a crucial role in balancing the market, the IEA wrote. The agency added, "With shrinking buffers and the global oil refining system stretched to its limit, progress in resolving conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine is more necessary than ever to prevent further market tightening and a collapse in demand."

Global oil supply could decrease by up to 5,7 million barrels per day this year, a 6% reduction compared to last year. This figure is a significant revision from the IEA's August report, which estimated the reduction at only 4%.

Oil demand is also projected to fall more sharply than expected. This outlook comes as negotiations between the US and Iran have stalled, dimming prospects for a ceasefire agreement. Concurrently, fighting is re-erupting in both the Strait of Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb, an alternative shipping route to Hormuz on the Red Sea.

This year's oil demand could decrease by 2,5 million barrels per day, a notable increase from the 1,6 million barrels forecast last month.

The IEA report was released as oil prices surged this week, following repeated attacks by the US and Iran on oil tankers near the Strait of Hormuz. Additionally, clashes between Saudi Arabia and Iran-backed Houthi forces in Yemen have escalated.

Global crude oil prices are currently at a 4-month high. Brent and WTI crude are now priced at 104 USD and 100 USD per barrel, respectively.

Ha Thu (according to CNBC)